Electricity Generation from Thermal Power Plants and Fuel Demand for Generation

The apparent efficiency in electricity generation in public power plants can be obtained by comparing the energy generated with that contained in the fuels used. Both data are available in BEN’s historical series. In Figure 2.1 the efficiencies obtained from these data and the projection for the next period are indicated. We have assumed some increment in the average efficiencies in fuel-oil-fueled and vapor-coal-fueled power plants. For natural gas we have supposed that a substantial participation in co-generation which, associated to equipment of more recent technology, can increase its efficiency. These preliminary values will be revised in the future using results from studies of the characteristics of the project both to be implemented or in elaboration.

Efficiencies of the Generating Energy Sources
Vapor Coal/ Fuel Oil / Diesel Oil / Charcoal /Nuclear / Natural Gas
Figure 2.1: Apparent Efficiencies in Electricity Generation and Projected Values

In Table 2.1 we show the adopted efficiencie values for some reference years. The efficiencies for the intermediary years are interpolated.

	1998	2000	2005	2010	2015	2020
VAPOR COAL	0,260	0,280	0,300	0,300	0,300	0,300
FUEL OIL	0,258	0,280	0,300	0,300	0,300	0,300
DIESEL OIL	0,272	0,280	0,280	0,280	0,280	0,280
NATURAL GAS	0,269	0,270	0,330	0,360	0,360	0,360

In the case of mineral coal primary data from BEN contain the energy generated by coal type and it is possible to obtain the apparent efficiency for each type of coal as shown in Figure 2.2.

Figure 2.2 : Efficiencies of thermal power plants for different types of coal. The number that follows VC (vapor coal) indicates its energy value in kcal/kg.

For future projects the coal quality must be a parameter to be considered in the expected efficiency.

2.2 Fuel Demand for Electricity Generation in Public Power Plants

One can evaluate fuel demand in thermal power plants from the energy generated in public power plants and from the expected efficiency.

In Figure 2.3 fuel demand as a function of electricity production and of the projected efficiencies are shown.

Table 2.2 shows the values of the expected fuel consumption for the period in the intermediary years

Fuel Consumption for Electricity Generation in Conventional Public Power Plants
Natural Gas / Charcoal / Diesel Oil / Fuel Oil / Vapor Coal / Projection
Figure 2.3 Fuel Consumption for the Reference Scenario

Table 2.2 Fuel Consumption for Electricity Generation in Public Power Plants: 1000 tep/year

	1998	2000	2005	2010	2015	2020
VAPOR COAL	1424	2140	2625	3718	4673	5634
FUEL OIL	804	1474	2403	2894	3628	4646
DIESEL OIL	1224	1593	2028	2520	2713	3053
NATURAL GAS	33	363	7307	13535	16576	20091

Table 2.3: Fuel Consumption for Electricity Generation in Public Power Plants – Natural Units

	Vapor Coal	Fuel Oil	Diesel Oil	Natural Gas			Vapor Coal	Fuel Oil	Diesel Oil	Natural Gas
	10^3 t/year	10^3 m3/year	10^3 t/year	10^6 m3/year	10^3 m3/day		10^3 t/year	10^3 m3/year	10^3 t/year	10^6 m3/year	10^3 m3/day
2000	5951	1558	1878	398	1092	2010	10337	3059	2971	14841	40662
2001	6201	1734	1982	1062	2908	2011	10939	3159	3039	15566	42646
2002	6428	1937	2077	2228	6104	2012	11501	3290	3090	16232	44471
2003	6676	2158	2175	3909	10709	2013	12025	3451	3129	16877	46238
200	6961	2369	2279	5927	16238	2014	12519	3635	3163	17522	48005
2005	7298	2540	2392	8012	21950	2015	12993	3835	3200	18176	49797
2006	7827	2705	2521	9964	27299	2016	13489	4049	3250	18884	51736
2007	8420	2824	2651	11621	31837	2017	13998	4266	3315	19620	53754
2008	9055	2909	2775	12948	35474	2018	1452	4482	3394	20389	55859
2009	9702	2980	2883	13994	38339	2019	15081	4697	3489	21191	58057
2010	10337	3059	2971	14841	40662	2020	15665	4911	3600	22029	60354

2. Electricity Generation from Thermal Power Plants and Fuel Demand for Generation

2.1: Apparent Efficiency in Electricity Generation

2.2 Fuel Demand for Electricity Generation in Public Power Plants

3. Projection of the Electricity Generation Installed Capacity