Economy & Energy
No 23 December 2000 -
No 23 em
Progress in the Energy Matrix and in the Emissions of Gases Causing the Greenhouse Effect
Preliminary Evaluation for the 2000-2020 period
2000 – 2020 Thermoelectric Generation
Equivalent and Electric Energy Demand in Brazil – First Approximation
1. Equivalent and Electric Energy Demand in Brazil – First Approximation
1.1 Equivalent Energy Demand
The conversion of final energy demand to equivalent energy, in the case of Brazil, was previously described and is summarized in Document 3 that is part of the present report.
The equivalent energy concept aims at establishing for the different economic sectors an average equivalence in the different uses of the various energy sources in the so called final form that are accounted for in the energy balances.
The use’s efficiencies are considered relative to a reference energy source. In the present work we use natural gas as the reference energy source. In order to facilitate things and to avoid establishing another unit we refer to ton equivalent petrol as meaning 10,800 Mcal and 1 tep corresponds to 1,167 m3 of dry natural gas.
1.2 Equivalent Energy/ GNP
Projection of equivalent energy demand depends on the estimated GNP, on the sectorial composition of the economic activity and on other factors not directly linked to the economic activity.
Eq. En./GNP Adjustment
Figure 1.1: Evolution of the equivalent energy/GNP ratio shows good stability and predictability along the period in which it was evaluated for Brazil. The fitting is also shown, assuming long-term stability.
The evolution of consumption in equivalent energy/GNP can be seen in Figure 1.1. The equivalent energy/product ratio in global consumption, as in many of the sectors studied, has been approximately stable even with important substitutions of energy sources in use in the studied sectors. In order to project this parameter it is interesting to compare the Brazilian values of the equivalent energy/product in recent years with those of different countries. A quick process for converting final energy into equivalent energy using relative average efficiencies of energy sources was applied only for three economic sectors and it is described in Document 4. The results for countries with different development levels are shown in Figure 1.2.
Figure 1.2: The graphic shows the equivalent energy/GNP for different countries arranged from left to right in increasing order of GNP per capita. The values of consumption by product are relative to that of Brazil. The secondary axis and the curve on the background indicate the GNP/inhab of the selected countries.
It can be noticed that contrary to what occurs in the final energy/GNP ratio that usually decreases when there is development, the equivalent energy/GNP does not present a clear increase trend when development exists. However, the studied developed countries present values superior to those observed in Brazil. As seen in Figure 1.1 the historical trend points to the increase of this ratio.
In order to project this variable a equivalent energy/product module is under development and it will permit establishing the expected path considering the inertia of the previous behavior and assuming a hypothesis for future evolution. Some of the screens produced are shown in Annex 2.
The Brazilian historical values and the equivalent energy /product of other countries shown in the previous figures were considered in the extrapolation. The nine richest countries present energy consumption by product that is 1.4 times that of Brazil. The average of the European countries and Japan is 1.15. These values were the basis for adopting the value of 1.2 as the future trend. The graphic in Figure 1.3 shows the adjustment considering the past values and those assumed for the futur.
Figure 1.3: Extrapolation of the equivalent energy/GNP parameter. The historical values, the adjustment and the projection are shown in the graphic on the left. The values for other countries, shown in the previous figure were used for guiding the choice of the limiting value.
This approximation takes into account only global factors. We are developing a sectorial module that will permit considering variations of sectorial contributions. This will allow for presenting an independent evaluation of energy demand that may differ from those considering in the planning of the involved energy sectors whose detailing level is generally larger. In compensation, the methodology permits evaluating demand for different economic scenarios.