Economy & Energy
No 23 December 2000 -
No 23 em
Progress in the Energy Matrix and in the Emissions of Gases Causing the Greenhouse Effect
Preliminary Evaluation for the 2000-2020 period
2000 – 2020 Thermoelectric Generation
The economic Module of the Projetar-e model was used to obtain a reference economic scenario. The operation of this program is described in Document 2 that is part of the present report (it describes the program and gives as example a scenario that is slightly different from the present one). In the present work we just describe the premises adopted in the considered reference scenario. Different scenarios can be chosen using the same methodology. The following premises were considered:
1. Territorial Saving Rate
The Territorial Saving Rate (1-Consumption/GNP) was considered as tending to a limit value of 27% as shown in Figure 1. The time constant adopted for coupling the last year data with the projected one was 5 years (average of the function that generates the "Poisson" integral curve).
In e&e No 22 we describe the operation of the projection program and we show the screens corresponding to the adopted reference scenario.
2. Capital Productivity
The capital/product ratio was chosen so that it
would stabilized in the 2.6 future years and practically maintain the
present level as shown in Figure 2.
Projection, Adjustment, Historical Data, Projection, Scenario: Reference
Figure 2: The capital productivity was supposed to maintain the level of the last years
3. External Trade
External Trade (average of exports and imports) was assumed to increase until reaching 8% in year 2020 as shown in Figure 3.
It was maintained assuming some growth of the Brazilian external trade
concerning the historical trend towards relative stability.
Figure 4: Evolution of Exports and Imports and of the Commercial Balance in the Reference Scenario.
In the following table the values of the commercial balance introduced for the first years and the intermediary ones are also shown.