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Economy & Energy
No 23 - November - December 2000  ISSN 1518-2932

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e&e No 23

Progress in the Energy Matrix and in the Emissions of Gases Causing the Greenhouse Effect

Main Page
Introduction
Reference Economic Scenario

Preliminary Evaluation for the 2000-2020 period
Demand in Equivalent Energy
Electric Energy Demand
2000 – 2020 Thermoelectric Generation

Participation of Fuels used in Generation  
Necessary Thermal Generation Capacity  

Emissions in Thermal Power Plants  

Conclusions and Sensitivity Evaluation

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Reference Economic Scenario (continuation 1) 

 4. The Net External Liability 

 The Net External Liability (public debt + accumulated direct external investments) was assumed to be 70% of the GNP. The real interest rates paid on the external debt was supposed to be 5.5% annually and the net remuneration for external investments, 3.5% annually. The expected evolution of the net external liability is shown in Figure 5.   

 Figure 5: Evolution of the commercial balance, the same as that of Figure 4, was established so that the same external liability would be maintained around 70% of the GNP. The considered real remuneration rates for financial capital were 3.5% annually concerning direct investments and 5.5% concerning external debt. 

  

5. Utilization Factor of the Production Capacity 

We have considered that the utilization of the productive capacity would tend to the average previously verified. In 1999 there was a 6% gap in the production capacity. Recovery of the capacity utilization was assumed to occur in the next years. This recovery would be indicated by growth rates introduced in years 200 and 2001 based on foreseen 2000 production and the expected one for 2001. 

   


Figure 6: Evolution of the economic utilization factor relative to the averagem hidtorical value (first axis)  and to the maximum historical utilization value of the existing capacity 

6. GNP Projection

From these assumptions and from the program’s internal interaction we have the projections for the GNP shown in Figure 7 

 


Figure 7: GNP growth as a function of the previously mentioned hypothesis 

Evolution of the Gross National Product 
Verified, Projected, Scenario: Reference
 

The main variables involved in growth were assumed to evolve as shown in Table 1 and as percent of the GNP.

Table 1: Scenario’s Main Variables

1998 

1999 

2000 

2001 

2003 

2008 

2013 

2018 

Consumption (% GNP)

82,7% 

82,6% 

82,3% 

81,6% 

77,3% 

75,5% 

75,0% 

74,7% 

Territorial Saving (% GNP)

17,3% 

17,4% 

17,7% 

18,4% 

22,7% 

24,5% 

25,0% 

25,3% 

External Transfer/ (%GNP)

-2,7% 

-1,3% 

-0,8% 

-0,1% 

1,0% 

1,2% 

1,5 

1,3% 

Investments (% GNP)   

19,9% 

18,7% 

18,5% 

18,4% 

21,7% 

23,3% 

23,4% 

24,0% 

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

1998 

1999 

2000 

2001 

2003 

2008 

2013 

2018 

Exports (% GNP) 

6,6% 

6,9% 

7,2% 

7,7% 

8,7% 

8,9% 

9,2% 

9,1% 

Imports  (% GNP) 

7,4% 

7,1% 

6,9% 

6,7% 

6,7% 

6,7% 

6,7 

6,8% 

    

7. Investments  

It can be noticed that the scenario assumes a strong resumption of internal saving and a solid Commercial Balance surplus. Resumption of development would require a recovery of investments so that the levels before the nineties would be re-established as shown in 
Figure 8. 

 

Figure 8: Investments would reach the levels they had before 1990. 

Investments in % GNP 
Civil Construction, Projection, Machines and Equip. and Others 

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