Economy
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Progress in the Energy Matrix and in the Emissions of Gases Causing the Greenhouse Effect Main
Page Preliminary
Evaluation for the 2000-2020 period
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Reference Economic Scenario (continuation 1) 4. The Net External LiabilityThe Net External Liability (public debt + accumulated direct external investments) was assumed to be 70% of the GNP. The real interest rates paid on the external debt was supposed to be 5.5% annually and the net remuneration for external investments, 3.5% annually. The expected evolution of the net external liability is shown in Figure 5. Figure 5: Evolution of the commercial balance, the same as that of Figure 4, was established so that the same external liability would be maintained around 70% of the GNP. The considered real remuneration rates for financial capital were 3.5% annually concerning direct investments and 5.5% concerning external debt.
5. Utilization Factor of the Production CapacityWe have considered that the utilization of the productive capacity would tend to the average previously verified. In 1999 there was a 6% gap in the production capacity. Recovery of the capacity utilization was assumed to occur in the next years. This recovery would be indicated by growth rates introduced in years 200 and 2001 based on foreseen 2000 production and the expected one for 2001.
Figure 6: Evolution of the economic utilization factor relative to the
averagem hidtorical value (first axis) and to the maximum historical utilization value of the existing capacity
6. GNP ProjectionFrom these assumptions and from the program’s internal interaction we have the projections for the GNP shown in Figure 7
Evolution of the Gross National Product
The main variables involved in growth were assumed to evolve as shown in Table 1 and as percent of the GNP. Table 1: Scenario’s Main Variables
7. InvestmentsIt can be noticed that the scenario assumes a strong resumption of
internal saving and a solid Commercial Balance surplus. Resumption of
development would require a recovery of investments so that the levels
before the nineties would be re-established as shown in
Figure 8: Investments would reach the levels they had before 1990. Investments in % GNP
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