Economy & Energy
Year XIII-No 75
October - December
ISSN 1518-2932

e&e  OSCIP

seta.gif (5908 bytes)

No 75 Em Português





other e&e issues

e&e No 75



Main Page

Is there hope after COP 15 in Copenhagen?

Brazilian Inventory of GHG - Preliminary values

Brazilian goals for climate change

The Copenhagen Agreement

National Policy Law for Climate Change - PNMC

e&e links

see also:




Is there hope after COP 15 in Copenhagen?

The Climate Conference in Copenhagen ended with the public taking note of the so called Copenhagen Agreement made in a direct negotiation among heads of state.

The negotiation process has reversed the usual diplomatic practice where the documents are previously prepared and only the final details are agreed among the high authorities.

The Agreement was reached through the initiative of five countries (USA, China, Brazil, India and South Africa) and its final form was accorded in an amplified circle of 28 countries and finally submitted to the plenary meeting. There has been resistance to the approval by consensus demanded by the Convention that learned of the Agreement with the opposition of only five countries.

However, the Conference was preceded by a long negotiation process. This negotiation produced a draft of more than one hundred pages that was finalized by the committee in charge but it did not survive more than one Day. The committee itself has than substituted it for another one with twelve pages, certainly because it considered that it had no chance of progress.

Concurrently with the official texts, several drafts leaked since the beginning of the Conference, one of them attributed to Denmark itself. Meanwhile, in the several discussion sessions concerning the subsidiary documents, it was observed the low disposition for reaching advances or even clear disposition to emphasize impasse. Apparently, all hopes were staked on the conversations among leaders that would happen after the arrival of the American president. At his arrival, Obama declared that he came for action.

The final discussion, unusual because it directly involved heads of state, lend to the Conference a certain atmosphere of heroic improvisation in the last days of a meeting that lasted two weeks. The UN Secretary-General himself, Ban Ki-moon, and the Executive Secretary of the 15ª Framework Conference on Climate Change, Yvo de Boer, said they were profoundly impressed with the process where the highest authorities of the different countries were involved. They said it was a unique occasion that probably would never occur again.

The true repercussion of the Agreement is not yet clear. However, there is the hope that the direct involvement of the top leaders in the negotiations had brought to the agreed document a moral support that would not be obtained by the traditional negotiation methods.

According to the Associated Press (1) (22/12/2009), the UN Secretary-General is summoning the countries to formally sign the Copenhagen Agreement (2) and take the necessary steps to reach a legally binding treaty in 2010. He is also summoning the rich countries to contribute to a created fund that is foreseen to reach 30 billion US dollars in the 2011/2012 period.

The call shows that even though it is “immediately operational”, the Agreement requires to be signed by the countries in order to become really effective. The Agreement has two annexes where the commitments of both the rich and developing countries will be recorded. The commitments of the developing countries will be signed in the Nationally appropriate mitigation actions of developing country Parties or NAMAs form.

It has been said in Brazil that the Brazilian declaration has a voluntary character. However, the Brazilian Ambassador Luis Figueiredo Machado (3), head of the Brazilian delegation, has declared that NAMAS are effectively voluntary but when they are informed and registered, they are verifiable and being verifiable they become obligatory for practical ends.   

The agreement has fixed the way of registering the commitment. The way of verifying its fulfillment was fixed and it is special and more rigorous for the third world countries (included in Annex 2). Probably this differentiation is justified by the financing involved. However, the verification item indicates that it applies to all cases even though it is more explicit in what concerns financing.

The head of the North American delegation has made clear the American intentions before the Agreement (4): he said in the interview to the press that the essential is not declaration but rather the commitments and their registration as part of the Agreement. He also said that it is necessary some kind of transparency obtained through “consultations” and that entities like the IMF, World Bank and World Trade Organization would take the results into account. International verification systems, including that of the World Bank have already been presented in the COP 15 technical sections.

The Agreement is reproduced in this issue of e&e and its main points are emphasized.

The Copenhagen meeting helped the world leaders to reinforce their vision relative to the importance of the issue. Regarding the most important impasse namely to get a commitment from the highest historical and presently absolute and per capita emitter- the United States, very little was obtained. There was only an announced intention, not quantified yet and that will certainly be quite bellow the Kyoto goal.

The developing countries took an important step when they have acknowledged that they should assume some form of commitment about the type of development they want. The largest emerging countries (China, Brazil, India and South Africa) have announced their goals.

At least in Brazil the consequences of the assumed commitments have not yet been analyzed nor discussed by society. The fixed date regarding the registration of commitments is 01/31/2010. We think that before the Brazilian commitment is officially announced, a discussion about the economical and social costs and about the feasibility of the assumed commitments should be carried on. This is specially valid regarding agriculture and husbandry. This discussion would perhaps demand some delay of the official registration of the Brazilian goal. In this issue a preliminary analysis of the proposed goals impacts is made .The main figures of the national inventory regarding greenhouse effect gases emissions in the version published by the Ministry of Science and Technology are also presented.  

1) Associated Press, 22/12/2009, UN urges all countries to sign climate accord, em acessado em 26/12/2009

2) UNFCC – Conference of Parties Draft decision -/CP.15 Copenhagen Accord, acessado em 26/12/2009

3) Conferência de Imprensa do Embaixador Luis Figueiredo Machado na COP 15
=1&theme=cop15&id_kongresssession=2301 acessado em 26/12/2009

4) Conferência de Imprensa do Embaixador Todd Stem chefe da delegação dos EUA
=1&theme=cop15&id_kongresssession=2301 acessado em 26/12/2009


Graphic Edition/Edição Gráfica:
Editoração Eletrônic

Friday, 03 February 2012

Contador de visitas