Economy & Energy
Ano XIII-No 75
October - December
2009
ISSN 1518-2932

 

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Is there hope after COP 15 in Copenhagen?

Brazilian Inventory of GHG - Preliminary values

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Text for discussion:

Commented summary of the MCT bulletin of 11/30/2009

Brazilian inventory of the greenhouse effect gases emission – Preliminary values

Frida Eidelman
 frida@ecen.com
Olga Mafra
olga@ecen.com
Carlos Feu Alvim
feu@ecen.com

 

1 - Introduction

The Ministry of Science and Technology has published on October 30 a bulletin with general information and preliminary values concerning the Brazilian Inventory of greenhouse effect gases emissions (1). The Inventory is available at

http://www.mct.gov.br/upd_blob/0207/207624.pdf

The Economy and Energy periodical has put this bulletin at the disposition of its readers at

http://ecen.com/eee75/eee75p/inventario_emissoes_brasil.pdf

The Inventory values are the result of studies carried out by about 700 specialists and 150 governmental and non-governmental entities and entities of the industry sector. The Inventory is part of the Second Communication to the Climate Convention and it will be submitted until March 31, 2011 and 2000 is its base year.

A summary of the published information will be presented in what follows as well as some considerations about emissions compared with that of the world and its relationship with the GDP growth.

2 – Greenhouse Effect Gases (GHG) Emissions

The GHG that are part of the Inventory and those that have been presented in the bulletin are carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). The clorofluor carbons (CFC) perfluorcarbons (PFC) and sulfur hexafluorite (SF6) gases are also estimated in the present Inventory.

The Inventory data are presented for 1990 and 1994 (extreme years of the previous Inventory), for 2000 (last year foreseen for the Second Inventory that will include the 1990 to 2000 period) and for 2005 (last year for which complete data are available).

The Inventory follows the guidelines suggested by IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), that organizes emissions according to sectors of the economy. These sectors are listed in Appendix 1, as they are listed in the MCT bulletin.

3 – GHG Emissions and Removals by gas compared to CO2 equivalent

The GHG can be accounted for by the mass of each one that is emitted to the atmosphere each year. In order to have a global idea of emissions it is useful to express them in values equivalent to CO2 that is the most important greenhouse gas regarding global warming. Some CO2 removals are accounted for as well.

In what follows it is presented the GHG emissions in CO2 equivalent that is based on the GWP (Global Warming Potential) which is a scale that compares each gas with  the same mass of CO2 (that is 1 by definition) and that has not been adopted by Brazil in its first Inventory. In the GWP equivalence the time horizon commonly used is 100 years in order to compare the different gases. Table 3.1 presents GHG emissions in CO2 equivalent for selected years. Table 3.1 shows emission by gas in CO2 equivalent and in the first column the equivalence factor used.

Table 3.1 - Emissions and removals of GHG in CO2eq

GHG

GWP Factor

1990

1994

2000

2005

Variation 1990/ 2005

Share 1990

Share 2005

   

Gg CO2 eq/year

%

CO2

1

931746

1012496

1525767

1574562

69,0

68,6

71,7

CH4

21

269640

290997

332115

391944

45,4

19,9

17,8

N2O

310

152396

171864

186496

225804

48,2

11,2

10,3

HFC23

11.700

1404

1837

0

0

-100

0,1

0,0

HFC134

1.300

0

163

633

3290

 

0,0

0,1

CF4

6.500

1931

2009

1092

670

-65,3

0,1

0,03

C2F6

9.200

239

248

120

74

-69,2

0,0

0,00

SF6

23.900

406

406

430

526

29,4

0,0

0,02

Total

-

1357762

1480020

2046653

2196869

62

100

100

Source: MCT (1)

Figure 3.1 shows emissions of greenhouse effect gases for the selected years showing the growth along time and the predominance of CO2 followed by CH4 and N2O. The other gases have little importance for the Inventory. Between 1994 and 2005 there was a 48% growth that corresponds to an annual growth of 3.7%. Between 1990 and 2005 total GHG emissions have grown 62% and the annual value is 3.3%.

Figure 3 3.1: GHG Emissions by Gas in CO2eq.

Source: MCT (1)

Figure 3.2 compares the relative importance of the GHG showing that the CO2 share has increased from 69% to 72% while those of methane (20% to 18%) and N2O (11% 10%) have decreased. The share of other gases is very reduced (0,2%).

 

Figure 3.2: Share of emissions in 1990 and 2005 showing the growth of relative importance of CO2 emissions.

  Source: MCT (1)

Figure 3.3 permits to compare the contribution of the different GHG to the world emissions with those of Brazil in the previous figure. The shares of methane and nitrous oxide are higher in Brazil due to the larger relative importance of the agriculture/husbandry sector.

Source: Comissariat general au développement durable – CGDD – França (2)

4 – GHG Emissions and Removals by Sector

GHG emissions are presented below for the main sectors in mass of each gas and the total values are expressed in CO2 equivalent. More details of emission by sector and from some activities can be found in Annex 2 in mass of CO2 equivalent.

4.1 - Emissions of carbonic gas

 Table 4.1 presents CO2 emissions by sector.

Table 4.1 – CO2 Emissions and removals by sector

Sector

1990

1994

2000

2005

Variation1990/ 2005

Share 1990

Share

2005

 

Gg /year

%

Energy

203217

245672

316451

346990

71

21,8

22,0

Industrial Processes

19456

19038

26235

25438

31

2,1

1,6

Change in Land Use  and Forests

709073

747785

1183081

1202134

70

76,1

76,3

Total

931746

1012495

1525767

1574562

70

100

100

Source: MCT (1)

The largest contribution to CO2 emissions is due to Changes in Land Use and Forests followed down below by energy. It should be noted that in the inventory approach energy means the type of use. That is, emissions due to energy use in industry and agriculture are accounted for in the energy sector. For this reason there are no CO2 emissions in the agriculture/husbandry sector where emissions are those from non-energy uses. In the agriculture/husbandry sector there are mainly CH4 and N2O emissions.

4.2 – Methane Emissions

Table 4.2 presents CH4 emissions by sector for selected years.

Table 4.2 – CH4 Emissions and removals by sector

Sector

1990

1994

2000

2005

Variation

1990/ 2005

Share

1990

Share
2005

 

Gg/year

%

Energy

425

379

416

546

28

3,3

2,9

Industrial Processes

3

3

4

4

59

0

0

Agriculture/ husbandry

9651

10337

10894

13158

36

75,2

70,5

Change in Land Use  and Forests

1615

1805

2762

2843

76

12,6

15,2

Waste Treatment

1146

1333

1739

2113

84

8,9

11,3

Total CH4

12840

13857

15815

18664

283

100

99,9

Total in CO2eq (x21)

269640

290997

332115

391944

45

100

100

Source: MCT (1)

Methane emissions are mainly due to the agriculture/husbandry sector. It should be noted that in Table 4.2 it is also shown the total emission in CO2 equivalent calculated by multiplying the methane mass by 21, as indicated.

4.3 Nitrous Oxide Emissions

Table 4.3 presents the N2O emissions by sector.

Table 4.3 - N2O Emissions and removals by sector

Sector

1990

1994

2000

2005

Variation 1990/2005

Share

1990

Share
2005

 

Gg/year

%

Energy

8,9

8,9

9,4

11,5

29

1,8

1,6

Industrial Processes

10,3

16,2

19,6

22,6

120

2,1

3,1

Agriculture/Husbandry

449,7

504,6

540

660,1

47

91,5

90,6

Change in Land Use and Forests

11,1

12,4

19

19,5

76

2,3

2,7

Waste Treatment

11,6

12,3

13,6

14,7

27

2,4

2

Total N2O

491,6

554,4

601,6

728,4

48

100

100

Total in CO2 eq (x310)

152396

171864

186496

225804

48

100

100

Source: MCT (1)

The largest contribution to N2O emissions is from the Agriculture/Husbandry Sector. It is also shown in Table 4.3 the total emission in CO2 equivalent calculated by multiplying the methane mass by 310, as indicated.

4.4 HFC – 23, HFC – 134, CF4, C2F6 and SF6 Emissions

Tables 4.4a and 4.4b present hidrofluorcarbons and perfluorcarbons emissions by sector both in mass units and mass of CO2 equivalent.

Table 4.4a - HFC-23, HFC-134, CF4, C2F6 and SF6 Emissions in tons (Industrial Processes)

Gas

1990

1994

2000

2005

Variation

1990/2005

 

t/ano

%

HFC - 23

120

157

-

-

-100

HFC - 134

-

125

487

2531

-

CF4

297

309

168

103

-65

C2F6

26

27

13

8

-69

SF6

17

17

18

22

26

           

         Source: MCT (1)

 Table 4.4b - HFC-23, HFC-134, CF4, C2F6 and SF6 Emissions in mil tons (or Gg) of CO2eq  (Industrial Processes)

Gas

1990

1994

2000

2005

Variation 1990/2005

Share  1990

Share

2005

 

Gg CO2eq/ano

%

HFC - 23 (x 11.700)

1404

1837

-

 

-100

35

 

HFC - 134 (x 1.300)

-

163

633

3290

   

72

CF4 (x 6.500)

1931

2009

1092

670

-65

49

15

C2F6 (x9.200)

239

248

120

74

-69

6

2

SF6 (x 23.900)

406

406

430

526

29

10

12

Total in CO2 eq

3980

4663

2275

4559

15

100

100

Note: The values of this table were obtained by multiplying the values of the previous one by the factors indicated in the first column and then divided by 1000, taking into account the unit used in this table

Refrigeration equipment and aluminum production are the main industrial processes that contribute to the emissions presented in Table 4.4a and Table 4.4b.

4.5 Emissions in CO2 equivalent

A summary of emissions by sector in CO2 equivalent is shown in Table 4.5

Table 4.5 – Anthropic Emissions and removals of GHG (Summary)

 

1990

1994

2000

2005

Varia-tion1990/ 2005

Share

1990

Share

2005

 

Gg CO2 eq/year

%

Energy

214922

256389

328089

362032

68

15,8

16,5

Industrial Processes

26686

28776

34657

37097

39

2,0

1,7

Agriculture/Husbandry

342073

373491

396171

480945

41

25,2

21,9

Change in Land Use and Forests

746429

789534

1246968

1267889

70

55,0

57,7

Waste Treatment

27661

31804

40720

48945

77

2,0

2,2

Total

1357770

1479994

2046605

2196908

62

100

100

Emissions relative to 1990

100

109

151

162

62

   

GDP  relative to 1990

100

111

128

147

47

   

Source: MCT (1), IBGE (3)

In Table 4.5 it can also be observed the variation along the 1990/2005 period. The accumulated percent variations show that emissions have grown at a rate larger than that of the GDP for energy (68%), deforesting (70%) and wastes (77%). The GDP growth (47%) was slightly larger than that of agriculture (42%) and than that of industrial processes (39%).

The evolution of emissions values in the four years selected for the Inventory is shown in Figure 4.1

Evolution of Emissions in CO2 equivalent

Figure 4.1: Evolution of GHG emissions in CO2eq in selected years by sector

Table 4.6 shows the emission values relative to 1990 for each sector and year and the annual growth rate between chosen years and for the whole period (last column). It can be observed that for the 2000/2005 period the sectors that had grown much more than the GDP (energy and reforesting) presented a lower growth. In the energy case, the higher oil price has contributed to reactivate the use of renewable fuels and there has been a reduction in deforesting maybe due to a higher repression of illegal activities.

Table 4.6 - Emissions and GDP:
Values relative to 1990 and annual growth rates

Sector

1990

1994

2000

2005

1990/
1994

1994/
2000

2000/
2005

1990/
2005

 

Value relative to 1990

Annual rate%

Energy

100

119

153

168

4,5%

4,2%

2,0%

3,5%

Industrial Processes

100

108

130

139

1,9%

3,1%

1,4%

2,2%

Agriculture/Husbandry

100

109

116

141

2,2%

1,0%

4,0%

2,3%

Change in Land Use and Forests

100

106

167

170

1,4%

7,9%

0,3%

3,6%

Waste Treatment

100

115

147

177

3,6%

4,2%

3,7%

3,9%

Total

100

109

151

162

2,2%

5,6%

1,4%

3,3%

GDP

100

111

128

147

2,6%

2,4%

2,8%

2,6%

Figure 4.2 presents the shares of GHG emissions by sector in chosen years between 1990 and 2005. It can be observed that there has not been drastic variation in the sectors´ share. In 2000 the agriculture share had a significant reduction but this is due mainly to the large growth of the deforesting share.

Share of Sectors in
CO2eq  Emissions

Figure 4.2: Percentage of GHG emissions by sector in selected years between 1990 and 2005

The Brazilian emissions are abnormally related to deforesting and agriculture as can be observed in Figure 4.3, whereas in the world emissions are concentrated in energy use. This difference is evident relative to developed countries.

Share of Sectors in CO2eq Emissions in Brazil and in the World

Figure 4.3: Comparison of Brazilian emissions in 2005 with world emissions in 2004.

Sorces: Inventory and Comissariat general au développement durable – CGDD - França (3)

5 - Conclusions

The Brazilian Inventory of Anthropic Emissions and Removal of Greenhouse Effect Gases in its preliminary edition presents data of high relevance for the environmental area but with important relationship with the Brazilian social and economical development.

The Brazilian emissions profile of GHG emissions is very special and the deforesting and the agriculture/husbandry sector (mainly husbandry) have special importance in the world emissions. This is due to the fact that Brazil has the world largest tropical forest and because of the importance of the agriculture/husbandry sector and the extraordinarily clean Brazilian energy profile.

6 – Bibliographic References

1)    MCT, 2009; Inventário Brasileiro de Emissões e Remoções Antrópicas de Gases de Efeito Estufa. Informações Gerais e Valores Preliminares, Brasília, 24 de novembro de 2009

2)    Commissariat general au développement durable, France, 2009, CO2 and Energy – France and Worldwide – Highlights – 2009 Edition

3)    IBGE dados em http://www.ipeadata.gov.br acessado em dezembro de 2009

 

Annex 1

 

 Sectors included in the Inventory - Partial transcription of the MCT bulletin

The Inventory is organized according to the structure suggested by IPCC. The present document includes the following sectors:

A1.1 Energy Sector

In this sector all anthropic emissions due to the production, transformation and consumption of energy are estimated. It includes both emissions from fuel combustion and emissions resulting from leakage in the production, transformation, distribution and consumption of the energy chain.

A1.1.1 Fuel combustion

In this sector are included CO2 emissions from oxidization of carbon contained in fuels during combustion for producing other forms of energy such as electricity, as well as final consumption. The emissions of other greenhouse effect gases during the combustion process (CH4, N2O, CO, NOx and NMVOC) are also accounted for. In case of biomass fuels (charcoal, vegetal coal, alcohol, bagasse), CO2 emissions are not included here. Renewable fuels do not have net emissions and emissions associated with the non-renewable share are included in the Change of Land Use and Forests sector.

A1.1.2 Fugitive emissions

In this sector are included greenhouse gases emissions during the mining, storage, processing and transport of mineral coal and during the extraction, transport and processing of petroleum and natural gas. Emissions associated with mineral coal include CH4 emissions during mining and processing and CO2 emissions from spontaneous combustion in waste piles. Emissions associated with petroleum and natural gas extraction include CH4 venting during transport in pipes and ships and during their processing in refineries.  CO2 emissions from flaring in petroleum and natural gas extraction platforms and in refineries are also considered.

A1.2 Industrial Processes Sector

In this sector are estimated anthropic emissions from industrial productive processes that are not due to fuel combustion since they are included in the Energy sector. The mineral products, chemistry, metallurgy, paper and cellulose, food and beverage sub-sectors using HFC and SF6 were considered.

A1.2.1 Mineral products

In this sector are included CO2 emissions from cement, lime and glass production and from sodium carbonate consumption.

A1.2.2 Chemical industry

In this sector are accounted for CO2 emissions from ammonia production, N2O emissions from nitric acid production and N2O from adipic acid production.

A1.2.3 Metallurgical industry

This sector includes the steel industry and ferrous alloys industry where there are CO2 emissions from iron ore reduction and PFC and CO2 emissions from the aluminum industry.

A1.2.4 Production and use of HFC and SF6

During HFC production and use fugitive emission may occur. Also during HCFC production, HFC secondary production and its consequent emission may occur. Another greenhouse effect gas, namely SF6, which is only produced through anthropic activities, has excellent characteristics for use in electric equipment of high capacity and performance. Brazil does not produce this gas. Therefore, the informed emissions are due only to leakage from equipment installed in the country. SF6 is also used as a cover gas in magnesium production.

A1.3 AGRICULTURE AND HUSBANDRY SECTOR

Agriculture and husbandry are economic activities of great importance in Brazil. Due to its large land area for cultivation and cattle raising the country has a prominent position in the world regarding production in this sector. Different processes result in the emission of greenhouse gases described in what follows. 

A1.3.1 Enteric fermentation

Enteric fermentation of herbivore ruminant animals which is part of their digestion is one of the largest sources of CH4 emission in the country. Among the different types of animals one can mention emissions from bovine herd that is the second largest in the world.

A1.3.2 Handling of animal waste matter

Animal waste matter systems can cause CH4 and N2O emissions. The anaerobic decomposition produces CH4 mainly when the waste is stored in liquid form.

A1.3.3 Rice cultivation

When rice is cultivated in paddy fields or lowland areas it is an important source of CH4 emissions. This occurs due to the anaerobic decomposition of organic matter in water. However in Brazil most of the cultivated rice is produced in non-flooded areas thus reducing the importance of the sector regarding total CH4 emissions.

A1.3.4 Burning of agriculture residues

The burning of agriculture residues which is imperfect because it is naturally made in the field causes the emission of CH4, N2O, NOx, CO and NMVOC. In Brazil the practice of agriculture residues burning occurs mainly in sugar cane cultivation.

A1.3.5 N2O emissions from agricultural soils

N2O emissions in agricultural soils are due to the use of nitrogenous fertilizers both synthetic and animal and to the deposition of animal waste in pastures. The latter is not considered as fertilization since it is not intentional but it is important in Brazil because of the predominance of extensive cattle raising. Vegetation residues left on the field, a nitrogen source, and the process of biological fixing of this element that occurs in soy, are a source of N2O emission as well.  It is included in this sector the cultivation of organic soils that increases mineralization of organic matter and produces N2O.

A1.4 CHANGES IN LAND USE AND FORESTS SECTOR

Change in land use results in carbon loss or gain both in aerial biomass and in the soil. In contrast to the first Inventory where only two transitions were considered (conversion of forests for other uses and regeneration of abandoned areas), the second Inventory uses the more detailed IPCC methodology and considers all possible transitions among different uses (native vegetation, agricultures, pastures,  secondary vegetation, foresting, urban area, flooded areas and reservoirs and other uses). In the present communication the CO2 removal in native vegetation areas is not considered since it was considered as non-anthropic. This conservative criterion restricts comparison with other countries since it does not follow the IPCC guideline that recommends accounting for all areas considered as treated. This question is extremely relevant and should be discussed during the consolidation period of the Inventory. In this sector are also included CO2 emissions from lime application on agricultural soils.

A1.5 WASTE TREATMENT SECTOR

A1.5.1 Disposal of solid wastes 

Disposal of solid waste creates anaerobic conditions that generate CH4. The CH4 emission potential increases according to improvement of control conditions of land filling and the depth of the waste repository.

A1.5.2 Sewage treatment

Effluents with a high degree of organic content have a large potential for CH4 emissions, specially domestic and commercial sewage, effluents from food and beverage industry and from paper and cellulose industry. The other industries also contribute to this emission but to a lesser degree. In the case of domestic sewage, as a function of nitrogen content in human foodstuff, there are also N2O emissions.

 Annex 2:

Emissions and anthropic removals of greenhouse effect gases in CO2eq (details)

 

1990

1994

2000

2005

Variation 1990/ 2005

Share

1990

Share

2005

 

(Gg CO2 eq)

%

Energy

214922

256389

328089

362032

68

15,8

16,5

Fossil Fuel Combustion

205563

247003

314449

343984

67

15,1

15,7

Energy Subsector

26094

34167

43794

52361

101

1,9

2,4

Industrial Subsector

67177

84252

107867

117755

75

4,9

5,4

Steel Industry

27537

39279

41594

47651

73

2,0

2,2

Chemical Industry

8661

9149

14098

14784

71

0,6

0,7

Other Industries

30979

35825

52176

55319

79

2,3

2,5

Transport  Subsector

83361

95175

125388

137479

65

6,1

6,3

Air Transport

5877

6266

9508

7758

32

0,4

0,4

Road Transport

72400

84076

111702

124418

72

5,3

5,7

Other Ways of Transport

5084

4832

4178

5303

4

0,4

0,2

Residential Subsector

15834

16918

18662

17488

10

1,2

0,8

Agriculture Subsector

10459

12893

14391

15240

46

0,8

0,7

Other Sectors

2638

3597

4347

3660

39

0,2

0,2

Fugitive Emissions

9359

9386

13641

18048

93

0,7

0,8

Coal Mining

2695

2245

3037

2821

5

0,2

0,1

Oil and Natural Gas Extraction and Transport

6664

7141

10603

15227

128

0,5

0,7

Industrial Processes

26686

28776

34657

37097

39

2,0

1,7

Cement Production

11062

10086

16047

14349

30

0,8

0,7

Lime Production

3688

4098

5008

5356

45

0,3

0,2

Ammonia Production

1683

1689

1663

1922

14

0,1

0,1

Nitric Acid Production

504

669

632

718

42

0,0

0,0

Adipic Acid Production

2674

4338

5429

6290

135

0,2

0,3

Aluminum Production

3355

3760

2818

2594

-23

0,2

0,1

Other Industries

1897

1725

2003

2056

8

0,1

0,1

Use of HFCs, PFCs and SF6

1823

2411

1057

3813

109

0,1

0,2

Agriculture

342073

373491

396171

480945

41

25,2

21,9

Enteric Fermentation

183386

195601

208310

252356

38

13,5

11,5

Cattle Herd

174671

186862

201092

244837

40

12,9

11,1

Dairy Cattle

25198

26504

25153

29428

17

1,9

1,3

Beef Cattle

149473

160358

175939

215409

44

11,0

9,8

Other Animals

8714

8740

7218

7519

-14

0,6

0,3

Handling of Animal Waste Matter

15332

16522

16924

19830

29

1,1

0,9

Cattle Herd

6159

6556

6887

8283

34

0,5

0,4

Dairy Cattle

1246

1315

1166

1325

6

0,1

0,1

Beef Cattle

4913

5241

5721

6958

42

0,4

0,3

Pork

7019

7382

6983

8015

14

0,5

0,4

Poultry

1659

2086

2632

3098

87

0,1

0,1

Other Animals

494

497

422

434

-12

0,0

0,0

Agriculture Soils

134085

150596

161938

198206

48

9,9

9,0

Animals in Pasture

69584

73378

75616

89011

28

5,1

4,1

Synthetic Fertilizers

4264

6435

9141

12062

183

0,3

0,5

Animals Waste Matter

1284

1598

1984

2352

83

0,1

0,1

Biological Fixing

5208

6526

8591

13397

157

0,4

0,6

Agriculture Residues

11198

14438

15236

21245

90

0,8

1,0

Organic Soils

5052

6985

6660

6510

29

0,4

0,3

Indirect Emissions

37494

41235

44709

53628

43

2,8

2,4

Rice Cultivation

5034

6060

5243

5652

12

0,4

0,3

Burning of Agriculture Residues

4236

4711

3755

4901

16

0,3

0,2

Change in Land Use and Forests

746429

789534

1246968

1267889

70

55,0

57,7

Change in Land Use

741325

780543

1238250

1260415

70

54,6

57,4

Bioma Amazon

447425

486642

757915

780079

74

33,0

35,5

Bioma Cerrado

188679

188679

379239

379239

101

13,9

17,3

Other Biomas

105221

105221

101097

101097

-4

7,7

4,6

Lime Application on Soils

5103

8991

8717

7474

46

0,4

0,3

Waste Treatment

27661

31804

40720

48945

77

2,0

2,2

Waste

15927

19181

24714

31131

95

1,2

1,4

Sewage

11734

12623

16007

17814

52

0,9

0,8

Industrial

2637

2715

4257

4996

89

0,2

0,2

Domestic

9097

9908

11750

12818

41

0,7

0,6

Total

1357770

1479994

2046605

2196908

62

100,0

100,0

 Full text:
http://ecen.com/eee75/eee75p/inventario_emissoes_brasil.pdf

 


[1] The biomass stock variation as that of forests is accounted for separately.

 

Graphic Edition/Edição Gráfica:
MAK
Editoração Eletrônic
a

Revised/Revisado:
Friday, 03 February 2012
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