Economy & Energy
Year IX -No 64:
October - November 2007
ISSN 1518-2932

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No 64 Em Português

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 e&e No 64

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“Backward Extrapolation” of the IBGE National Accounts back to 1947

New Data in the National Energy Balance – 2007

Are Brazilian Carbon Emissionsgrowing more than the GDP?

 

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Versions in English and Portuguese available at the Internet

Text for Discussion

Are the Brazilian Carbon Emissions

growing more than the GDP?

Carlos Feu Alvim, Frida Eidelman, Olga Mafra and
                                                                       Omar Campos Ferreira
 

Emissions of greenhouse effect (GHE) gases in the energy activities were updated for 2006 using the bal_eec program (available for download). In 2006 carbon emissions had zero growth in spite of the 3.7% growth of the GDP. The change in the energy profile, described in the article that follows, explains this behavior.

Emissions of carbon contained in the GHE gases grew more than the GDP from 1994 on. This trend started its reversal from 2001 on. Carbon emission by products (in kg of carbon per one thousand dollars of 2005) reached 112 in 2001 and was reduced to 99 in 2006. The 2006 value (99) is close to the historical average (98) but still 5% higher than the 1994 value (94).

Carbon emission by product analyzed by sector reveals that Industry is the sector that emits more per GDP unit and the Agriculture and Husbandry Sector is the one that emits less. The Services Sector includes two extremes: Transport, strong emitter and Commercial and Public Sector that emits little. Evolution along the years shows that the Industrial Sector was the leader regarding emissions increase and the one that is more rapidly reversing this trend. In the industrial activities, Metallurgy is predominant regarding emissions and has a large disproportional share in the GDP relative to emissions.  

News and Commentaries:

News in the National Energy Balance – BEN 2007

Frida Eidelman and Olga Mafra

In the Ministry of Mines and Energy website http://www.mme.gov.br/mme are available the data relative to BEN 2007, base year 2006. It is also available the annual review that shows a growth of 3.2% in energy consumption between 2005 and 2006. Renewable and nuclear energy have grown (5.3%) more than fossil fuels (1.5%). Among them prominence should be given to natural gas that has grown 5.8% while mineral coal has decreased 1.9%.

BEN, edited by EPE/MME, is offering regarding the year 2006 additional information about electricity autoproducers, the consumption structure of transformation centers that previously were included in the Energy Sector item, data about sectors such as sugar aluminum, alumina and pelleting and the subdivision of the Non Energy item.

Text for Discussion:

“Bacward extrapolation” of the National Accounts until 1947: How to Make Compatible the New Series of the National Accounts System of IBGE with Long-Term such as projetar_e 

Aumara Feu e Carlos Feu Alvim

IBGE has amplified and modified the calculation of the National Accounts and that has affected the values regarding the GDP growth and has considerably changed its structure. This made difficult the agglutination of the old series and the new one without making both series compatible. The change affects the long-term model operation such as projetar_e used by e&e. It is suggested the “backward extrapolation” until 1947 and presents the result.

SUMMARY

Estão as Emissões de Carbono Brasileiras Crescendo mais que o PIB?.

1 - Emissões de Carbono e PIB.

2 - A Contribuição dos Setores nas Emissões de Carbono.

3 - Emissões de Carbono por Atividade Industrial.

4 – Conclusão.

Novidades no Balanço Energético Nacional – 2007.

1 - O BEN 2007.

2 - Novidades no BEN 2007.

3 - Resenha Energética Brasileira Exercício 2006.

3.1 - Energia Renovável.

3.2 - Energia Não Renovável.

4 - Autoprodutores.

5.-Desagregações.

6 - Conclusão.

“Retropolação” das Contas Nacionais até 1947: Como Compatibilizar os Dados da Nova Série do Sistema de Contas Nacionais do IBGE com Modelos de Longo Prazo, como o projetar_e.

1 - Introdução.

2 – Produto Interno Bruto.

3 – Formação Bruta do Capital Fixo (FBKF).

3.1 – Comparação dos dados.

3.2 – Retropolação.

4 - Conclusão.

 

 

Graphic Edition/Edição Gráfica:
MAK
Editoração Eletrônic
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Revised/Revisado:
Thursday, 05 May 2011
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