Economy
& Energy
Year IX -No
64:
October
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November 2007
ISSN 1518-2932
No 64 Em Português
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Economy
& Energy |
Patrocínios: |
No 64 Em Português |
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“Backward Extrapolation” of the IBGE National Accounts back to 1947 New Data in the National Energy Balance – 2007Are Brazilian Carbon Emissionsgrowing more than the GDP?
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Text for Discussion Are Brazilian Carbon Emissionsgrowing more than the GDP?
Carlos Feu Alvim
feu@ecen.com 1 – Carbon Emissions and GDPThe main headline of the Folha de São Paulo newspaper in its September 19 edition was “Pollution grows more than the GDP in the country”, reporting the Carbon Balance in the Energy Activities study carried out by the Economy and Energy Organization and published in the Nº 62 issue of its periodical. The article of Claudio Angelo, science editor of Folha, called attention to the fact that GHG emissions between 1994 and 2005 grew 45% while the GDP grew 32%. The article’s approach is relevant because if developing countries like Brazil claim that they cannot restrict their economic growth in order to reduce emissions, it may seem odd that Brazilian emissions are growing more than the GDP. However, one cannot ignore that our base is an energy matrix that is exceptionally “clean” in terms of GHG and we should not be punished for that. The implicit question in the concern expressed by the Folha’s article is if Brazil could continue growing with the same clean matrix it has presently. In one of its aspects our energy matrix could be not so clean. This is the case of hydraulic energy whose share has been reducing and will continue to be reduced. This is happening due to the difficulties regarding the construction of large reservoirs which makes it necessary a thermal complementation to regulate the supply. In the long term there are also limitations of the potential that can be economically exploited. As alternatives one has biomass and nuclear power plants that have no direct emissions. The other inevitable demand growth in the present economic model is due to the increase of individual vehicles use. However, this need can be satisfied by carburant alcohol. Before answering the question made by Folha, it is worthwhile to analyze and compare the evolution of GHG emissions and that of the GDP since the necessary statistics are available. In Table 1 are shown the GDP values expressed in 2005 dollars and the total GHG emissions in Brazil. Table 1: Carbon Emissions in the Energy Activities (Non Renewable Fuels) and GDP in Brazil
In Figure 1 are shown the GDP evolution and that of carbon emissions relative to 1994 (last year of the national Inventory). Figure 2 shows that in Brazil emissions have been oscillating around the historical average of 98 kilograms of carbon by one thousand dollars of 2005. The value for 2006 (99 k C/1000 US$ of 2005) is practically equal to the average value of the 1970/2005 period and the emissions growth between 2005 and 2006 is practically zero (reduction of 0.005%), in spite of the fact that the GDP grew 3.7%, as shown in Table 1. Figure 2 shows that the decrease, recovery and new decrease of carbon content in the GDP coincides with the petroleum price shocks. It should be remembered that petroleum corresponded (in 2006) to 70% of fossil fuels in Brazil since mineral coal (16%) and natural gas (14%) still have a relative modest share in emissions due to its also modest share in the Brazilian energy matrix. That is, from 2001 on carbon emission in the energy activities are growing less than the GDP.
Figure 1: Evolution of Carbon Emissions in Energy Activities compared to that of the GDP, showing a larger increase than that of the GDP from 1994 on and a reversal of this trend from 2000 on.
Figure 2: Carbon Emissions per dollar of product in Brazil, showing a decrease after the second petroleum price shock (1979) that was reversed by the “cold shock” of 1986 and its recovery after 2001. Figure 3 shows the evolution of petroleum prices in US$ of 2006, illustrating the four petroleum shocks. It should be noted that in Brazil the first shock is not evident in Figure 2 because at that time the country was experiencing the “economical miracle” driven by the simultaneous high price of commodities. It is interesting to point out that the average values of 2007 and of the first semester of 2007 did not exceed the average values of 1979 and 1980, around 90 dollars per barrel. However, the daily Brent quotations have exceeded 100 dollars per barrel in the second semester of the present year.
Figure 3:
Average annual oil prices,
showing the four petroleum price shocks, including the “cold shock” of
1986; the prices correspond to annual average value and those of 2007
refer to the first semester. 2 – Sectors Contribuition to Carbon EmissionsThe National Energy Balance - BEN, annually edited by EPE/MME (Energy Research Enterprise of the Ministry of Mines and Energy), presents economic data relative to sectors that are compatible with those adopted for energy. This permits to follow the evolution of energy intensity of the different sectors (Energy/ GDP of sector). Using emission data from the bal_eec software and using economical data available at BEN it is possible to estimate the intensity or carbon content in the use of energy by sector. For this purpose one should aggregate the carbon emission data calculated by the program in the same aggregation of BEN’s economic and energy data. Table 2 shows the economical data (product by sectors) and Table 3, the final energy consumption data by sector supplied by BEN. Data are presented in intervals of five years. Table 4 shows carbon emissions data. It should be noted that emission relative to electricity generation was incorporated in the emission of each sector in proportion to its consumption. Table 2: Gross Domestic Product -GDP 109 US$ (2005)
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