Economy & Energy
Year VIII -No 46:
October-November 2004  
ISSN 1518-2932

seta.gif (5908 bytes)No 46 Em Português

 

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Small State & Great Enterprises

The technological prospective: prediction with a simple mathematical modeling (2)

Back to Petroleum

Evolution of Investments in Brazil 

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Opinion:

Small State & Great Enterprises Genserico Encarnação Júnior

In a small state of the Federation (Espírito Santo) and in a setting where the role of the State is reduced, the performance of the large enterprises generates, besides the benefits of the economic activity, distortions in the distribution of these benefits and a strong environmental impact that the small State (in both senses) has difficulties to solve.

Article:

The Technological Prospective: Prediction with a Simple Mathematical Modeling (2)      J. I. Vargas

In the previous issue a simple model that was applied to projections in different areas was presented. In the present issue, the model is applied to technological prospecting, giving important indications regarding what can be expected from the future in different areas of scientific and technological activities.

Texts for Discussion:

Back to Petroleum         Omar Campos Ferreira

The price increase of petroleum brought back the question of its inevitable exhaustion and when this would occur. The evaluation of reserves that could be economically exploited (including fields to be discovered) is not a simple task. However, the historical list of the discoveries has a dynamics that could reveal an objective evaluation of these reserves. The methodology has a close correlation with that applied in a previous article about the subject.

Evolution of Investments in Brazil        Aumara Feu

In order to grow, Brazil needs to invest. Therefore, the investment rate growth (GFCF/GDP) is good news. However, most of this increase is due to the variation of investment price relative to other ones and this limits the effects of this increase on the real product. Actually, in decades the investment price has been growing more than the other prices as measured by the implicit GDP deflator.

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