Carlos Feu Alvim(*)
Imagine that you are in the shoes of an investor who has one million dollars to invest in Brazil. The average annual revenue of the Brazilian productive capital is, as previously shown, 3% p. a..
That is, investing in real estate, industry or commerce the person could expect to duplicate his assets in 23 years. This value is obtained by mentally applying the “69 rule” or calculating it with a calculator.
It may seem little but it is not. Imagine that a boy (or a girl) when he (she) is eighteen receives an inheritance of 1 million dollars. With this revenue he (she) could end his (her) activities at the age of 64 with a capital of 4 million dollars. According to the standard of any civilized society he (she) would have administered his (her) asset in an excellent way.
Imagine that this 18-year old boy in June 1990 would have invested all his money in Brazilian Government bonds. Today, at the age of thirty, he would have his assets multiplied by five. This explains why the real investments have decreased in Brazil.
The newspapers have published that Onassis’ granddaughter , in January 28, 2003 when she came of age, came into her inheritance evaluated in one billion American dollars. If the Brazilian Government bonds continue to pay 15% p. a. , she would have one half billion more when she is 30, in case she would made this investment. By investing one tenth of her fortune, she would have one and a half times what she owes today.
The degree of difficulty for multiplying capital is inverse to the total amount. In our example, if the young man would have received one thousand dollars he would have more chance to multiply his capital than with one million dollars. He would also have more chance to loose it. In what concerns Athina, it would be much more difficult to multiply her hundred million dollars by five.
Well, in terms of Brazil or of our external debt that has been generated by the process of paying these interest rates we are certainly speaking of billion dollars that have been multiplied at this amazing pace. How can a country with a 3% capital growth pay 15% real interests annually for more than ten years? I think it cannot.
Anyway, if I were a friend of Athina Onassis Roussel I would not advise her to invest her 100 million dollars in speculative investments in Brazil.
Moral of the story: in the nineties it was better to be the granddaughter of the speculator Soros than of the shipbuilder Onassis.
Graphic Edition/Edição Gráfica:
Sunday, 28 August 2005.
If Brazil would continue to pay 15% p.a. of real interest, Athina Onassis, who received 100 million dollars when she completed 18 years, would transform this money into 500 million dollars when she is thirty. That is, applying 10% of her fortune (estimated to be 1 billion dollars) she would have one and a half times her present fortune. This illustrates the huge amount of interests internally paid by Brazil in the last 12 years.