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Economy & Energy
No 35:  Decemberr 2002  January 2003 ISSN 1518-2932

seta.gif (5908 bytes)No 35 Em Português

 

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e&e No 35

Main Page

Long Term Planning

Energy and Economy in Brazil, 1970-2000

Interest Rates in order to Increase the Internal Saving and Resume Growing

State Petroleum Monopoly Revisited

The Alcohol Polemic: Strayed Planning

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Long Term Planning

The international approach is made based on studies of the United States Department of Energy, disseminated through the Internet at the start of the second semester of 2002 under the title “International Energy Outlook 2002 (IEO2002)”. The study considers three international macroeconomic scenarios for the period 1999-2002, denominated reference, high and low and disaggregated- by different regions and countries - scenarios.

Energy and Economy in Brazil, 1970-2000

Final energy consumption data, except for the residential sector and the non-energy uses, were taken from the National Energy Balance and the Lower Calorific Value for electricity is considered as 1kWh=860 kcal. Energy consumption of non-metallic products corresponds to cement and ceramics. Energy consumption of other services corresponds to commerce and public service. Energy consumption of the metallurgical sector corresponds to pig iron and steel, ferroalloys and others metallurgical items. The “other industries” groups aggregates civil construction and the other industrial sectors that were not separately analyzed.

The GDP and AV data are from IBGE with the following adjustments: (i) new calculation methodology for the GDP from 1990 to 2000 and normalization of the period from 1970 to 1989, considering the real product indexes relative to 1980 and (ii) AV of the energy sector combines fractions of the mineral extraction, public services, petroleum refining and coke production

Our Utopia 2:

Interest Rates in order to Increase the Internal Saving and Resume Growing

In the previous issue we have observed that increasing the internal saving is an indispensable condition for resuming growth. There is a close correlation between investment and growth, where cause and effect are confounded and have reciprocal feedback. Actually, perspectives of growth induce investment that, on the other hand, is necessary to increase production.

The large increase of the real interests rates seems to have induced the internal saving reduction that was not compensated by the influx of external saving. In order to grow it is necessary to reduce the real interests rates to about 3% annually. The capital invested in Federal Government bonds have been multiplied by five in the last 12 years. There is no productive (licit) investment that could compete with this remuneration rate. The good news is that in the last five months the real Selic rate has been negative.

State Petroleum Monopoly Revisited

Our collaborator Genserico Encarnação Júnior, former Planning Superintendent of Petrobrás (1990) and former Coordinator of Energy Policy of the Mines and Energy Ministry (1991-1994) presents his personal proposal for the Lula Administration Agenda regarding petroleum. These are general suggestions that consider the PT’s program and that raise another polemic issue: the state petroleum monopoly.

The Alcohol Polemic: Strayed Planning

In the number 34 issue of e&e there were two articles about alcohol: the first one by Genserico Encarnação Júnior that evaluates the history of the Alcohol Program and calls attention to the possibility of repeating mistakes if the plan is eventually resumed; in the second one, by Omar Campos Ferreira, the technological evolution of the sugar and alcohol industry is analyzed through indexes concerning farming and industry productivity. Therefore, we had  fuel alcohol examined from two different points of view. If conveniently adjusted, both visions could contribute to improve the understanding regarding the subjacent technological and economic issues. The present article by the second author, about the same subject, analyses mainly the technical objections presented by the first one.

Graphic Edition/Edição Gráfica:
MAK
Editoração Eletrônic
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Revised/Revisado:
Tuesday, 11 November 2008
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e&e No 35, Main Page, Long Term Planning, Energy and Economy in Brazil, 1970-2000, Interest Rates in order to Increase the Internal Saving and Resume Growing, State Petroleum Monopoly Revisited, The Alcohol Polemic: Strayed Planning