Antonio Moreira Patusco:
Contribution to the Study regarding the INTERNATIONAL PANORAMA for the National Council for Energy Policy - CNPE
The international approach is made based on studies of the United States Department of Energy, disseminated through the Internet under the title “International Energy Outlook 2002 (IEO2002)”.
The study analyses three macroeconomic international scenarios for the period 1999-2020, denominated high and low reference scenarios and disaggregated in different regions and countries.
The analysis of this document divides the world in three groups according to their importance: industrialized, developing and structuring countries (EE/FSU) (1).Whenever necessary, considerations regarding Brazil are presented. With some adjustments, the analysis considers the year 2000 as the reference year.
In the reference scenario the world Gross Domestic Product will grow 3.2% per annum (p.a.) in the period 2000-2020, slightly higher than the3.1% p.a. historical growth in the period 1970-2000. The industrialized countries will grow 2.7% p.a., the developing countries, 5% p.a. and the EE/FSU, 4.4% p.a. The high and low scenarios shift between 1 and 2 percent points from the reference scenario growth rate, depending on the region or country.
For Brazil it is forecasted a 5% p.a. growth, slightly higher than the 4.5% forecasted for the Central and South America set.
The world population , with an average growth rate of 1.13% p.a., will reach 7570 million inhabitants in 2020. The industrialized countries present a 0.44% rate, the developing countries 1.37% and the EE/FSU group, 0.22%. For Brazil it is foreseen a 1.08% p.a. rate.
The developing countries, even with the largest economic growth rate, will reach 2020 with only 26% of the world GDP and a per capita income of US$2,570 (1997 dollar). The industrialized countries, with a per capita income of US$40,360 still have the significant share of 70% of the world GDP in 2020. Brazil, included in the developing countries, reaches 3.8% of the world GDP at the end of the period compared with 2.7% in 2000. Considering the exchange rate in 1997, the Brazilian per capita income reaches US$10,700 for a population of 211 million inhabitants.
The IEO 2002 world energy demand (Total Primary Energy Supply - TPE) reaches 15,410 million toe (ton oil equivalent) in 2020, presenting an average growth rate of 2.26% p.a., slightly higher than the 2.14% p.a. historical rate of the 1970-2000 period. The industrialized countries present a 1.27% p.a. rate, the developing countries, 3.86%p.a. and the EE/FSU group, 1.64%p.a. Brazil reaches an energy demand of 424 million toe in 2020, with a 3.3 % p.a. growth rate
The world energy intensity measured by the ratio between the energy demand and the GDP decreases 0.95% p.a. in the projected period, a figure that represents a larger effort regarding the rational use of energy relative to the period 1970-2000, when the energy intensity reduction was 0.92% p.a.
The EE/FSU group must make the largest energy intensity reduction (-2.58%). The effort of the industrialized countries, 1.34% p.a., is larger than that of the developing countries (-1.15%p.a.). The IEO2002 studies indicate for Brazil a reduction rate concerning energy intensity of –1.59% p.a., what means a huge effort for rationalizing the use of energy.
The variations regarding the participation of energy sources in the world TPES are small when the projected data are compared with historical series. Natural gas is the only energy source that will have its participation increased, shifting mainly natural coal. Petroleum and nuclear energy present a small decrease in their participation and renewable sources (hydraulic, biomass, wind, solar, etc.) maintain their participation.
The carbon emissions (carbon dioxide contained – CO2) reach 9850 million tons in 2020. Comparing it to the 2000 value, this amount maintains practically the same ratio with energy demand (0.639 tC/toe). For the developing countries it is expected a 0.21%. reduction of this index For Brazil it is projected a 1.06% growth in this index due to the reduction of renewable sources participation, mainly the hydraulic one. Nevertheless, Brazil still continues to have a much more favorable index, only 0.502 tC/toe. The EE/FSU group countries increase their index 0.14% p.a., reaching 0.616 tC/toe and the industrialized countries maintain their index around 0.595 tC/toe.
In 2020 Brazil will consume 2.75% of the world energy but only with 2.2% of the total carbon emissions due to energy use.
The IEO2002 forecasts indicate that the developing countries will exceed the carbon emissions amount of the industrialized countries at the end of the projected period.
COMPAIRING THE WORLD ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTS
The projections of different Organizations about the growth of the world TPES until 2020 show small variations – between 2 and 2.1% p.a. The largest differences at the regional level do not modify the trends observed by almost all studies that present the largest growth rate for developing countries, followed by that of the EE/FSU group. To the industrialized countries are reserved the smallest growth rates of energy demand.
Sources: IEO2002: Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Energy Projection System (2002). IEO2001: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2001, DOE/EIA-0484(2001) (Washington, DC, March 2001), Table A1, p. 169. DRI-WEFA, World Energy Service: World Outlook 2000 (Lexington, MA, January 2001). IEA: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2000 (Paris, France, November 2000), pp.364-418.
(1)Groups of Countries:
Industrialized: United States, Canada, Mexico, England, France, Germany, Italy, Other Industrialized Countries from Europe, Japan and Australasia.
Developing: China, India, South Korea, Turkey, African Countries, Central and South America Countries and other developing countries from Asia and Middle East.
EE/FSU: Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Kasakistan, Bulgaria, Albania, Croatia, Other Countries from the former Soviet Union, Other countries from Europe in Economic Restructuring.
Graphic Edition/Edição Gráfica:
Tuesday, 11 November 2008.