Economy
& Energy
No 33:
Julho-Agosto 2002
ISSN 1518-2932
No
33 EmPortuguês
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Economy
& Energy |
No
33 Em Português |
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Main Page
Energy and Emissions Matrix Final Report
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July, 2002 METHODOLOGICAL NOTESThe Total Primary Energy Supply – TPES represents the energy available for transformation (refineries, charcoal plants, etc.) that is distributed and consumed in the productive processes in the country. Except for statistical adjustment, the sum of the Final Consumption in the economical sectors, the losses in the distribution and storage and the losses in the transformation processes are equal to the TPES. The accounting of the different energy forms is carried out using conversion factors that take into consideration the heat quantity in calories produced by fuel after complete combustion (calorific power concept). For electricity, through the first Thermodynamic principle, 1kWh = 860 kcal, however, it is common to use thermal equivalent criteria that value hydraulic energy as being originated from thermal plants, incorporating all thermal losses. This criterion is useful only for harmonizing TEPS comparisons among countries with different structures of thermal and hydraulic generation. Therefore, for thermoelectric plants with 27.5% average efficiency, 1kWh = 860/0.275 = 3132 kcal (criterion used by the Brazilian Energy Balance – BEN) and for 38% average efficiency, 1kWh = 2263 kcal (criterion used by the BP Statistical Review – this bulletin does not considers biomass and in the case of Brazil, it does not consider electricity imports). The International Energy Agency -IEA and the World Energy Council – WEC use both the theoretical factor 1kWh = 860 kcal. When the toe (ton oil equivalent unit is preferred, the conversion factors are calculated by the ratio between the calorific power of each energy source and that of petroleum. In the present document we present in the table the Brazilian TPES according to the three mentioned criteria while the percent structure of the TEPS and the further analysis follow the IEA and WEC criterion. This criterion presents the actual transformation losses; it does not distort the TEPS evolution analysis and permits direct comparisons with data from other countries published by IEA and WEC. We notice that BEN’s TEPS is the highest one due to the factor used for hydraulic power and electricity, namely 0.29 toe/MWh (3131/10800). The IEA factor is 0.086toe/MWh (860/10000). GENERAL ANALYSISThe TEPS per capita in Brazil in 2001 was 1.12 toe and it is below the world average (1.65 toe/inhab), below that of Argentina (1.73) and well below that of the United States (8.11). But the TEPS relative to the GDP is 0.3 toe/thousand US$(1990), comparatively higher than those of Argentina (0.27), USA (0.31) and Japan (0.15). This last figure shows that for each GDP unit Japan needs to invest in energy the half invested by Brazil. In its condition of steel, aluminum and ferroalloy exporter and with significant investments in the petroleum area, Brazil presents a production structure that is energy- and capital-intensive and little job-intensive, facts that justify the inequalities of income distribution. It should be pointed out that these sectors are buying concessions for a large part of the Brazilian hydroelectric power plants. Preliminary data from IBGE indicate that Brazil has grown 1.51% in 2001, a performance strongly influenced by the electric energy supply crisis. The industrial sector was the most affected, with a negative growth of – 0.58%. The agriculture and husbandry and service sectors, with 5.11% and 2.52 % growths, respectively, were responsible for the still positive GDP rate.
For the second consecutive year TPES presents a growth rate smaller than that of the GDP. In 2000 it was 2.7% versus 4.36% of the GDP and in 2001, 1% versus 1.51%. It is still premature to say that this is the trend for the next years. Natural gas has increased its participation in industry, transport and electricity generation in 2001. Hydraulic energy has lost a significant participation share due to the supply crisis that occurred in 2001, namely from 15.7% to 13.6%. The reduction of electricity imports from Paraguay/Itaipú and a good performance of the petroleum sector have permitted the reduction of the external energy dependency, from 21.9% in 2000 to 20.4% in 2001. Comparatively with other countries, Brazil presents a privileged situation in terms of renewable energy sources utilization. In Brazil, 40% of the TPES is renewable energy while the world average is 14% and in the OECD countries, 6%.
Countries with large thermal generation present losses in transformation and distribution between 25 and 30% of the TPES. In Brazil these losses are only 10% due to the high hydraulic participation. This advantage together with the high use of biomass results in low CO2 emission in Brazil – 1.69 tCO2/toe from fuel use when compared to the world average of 2.36. PETROLEUM AND ITS PRODUCTSPetroleum and LNG production in 2001 was 1336 thousand bbl/day, presenting a growth rate of 4.9% relative to 2000, a performance much lower than the previous one but still significant. The petroleum products production, 1657 thousand boe/day, has grown 2.5% and consumption, 1721 thousand boe/day, maintained the 2000 level. With these results the external dependence regarding these products was attenuated. The net petroleum imports were 316 thousand bbl/day in 2001 versus 367 in 2000 – a13% reduction, and the net imports of petroleum products were 67 thousand bbl/day in 2001 versus 108 in 2000 –a 38% reduction. The production and consumption balance still shows deficits regarding diesel (15% of demand), LPG (30% of demand) and naphtha (13% of demand) and surpluses of fuel oil (39% of offer) and gasoline (13% of offer). The largest use of diesel is in road transport (75%), followed by the agriculture and husbandry sector (15%) and electric energy generation (5%). In road transport, diesel has grown 2.5% in 2001 and in agriculture and husbandry, 9%. Automotive gasoline continued to have a negative growth rate in 2001 (-2.6%) while in 2000 it was – 0.6%. Fuel oil continues to be substituted by petroleum oil coke and by natural gas. With a negative performance (-14.2%) in the industrial sector in 2001, fuel oil has lost 3 percent points between 1999 and 2001 regarding consumption in this sector
The proved petroleum reserves of 8485 million barrels correspond to 17 years of the present production that guarantees a comfortable situation for the country. For the OECD countries the reserves correspond to 11.5 years of production, while the world average is 40.3 years. NATURAL GASNatural gas production in 2001 was 38.5 million m3/d, 5.8% higher than the 2000 production. Imports from Bolivia were 12.6 million m3/d, a 114% growth relative to 2000. In 2001 the main use of natural gas was in the industrial segment and it has grown 18.5%. It is followed by the industrial activities of Petrobrás, with 6.4 million m3/d and a 3.2% growth.
It should be pointed out the 320% growth of natural gas in the public electric energy generation (4.2 million m3/d) and the 35.3% growth in the self-producers generation (2,3 mill m3/d). Even though smaller in value, it should also be pointed out the strong growth of its use in vehicles, 77.8%, corresponding to a 1.6 million m3/d consumption. The natural gas proved reserves, 219.8 billion m3, are equivalent to 15.6 years of the present production. For the OECD countries the reserves are equivalent to 13.7 years of production while the world average is 61.9 years. ELECTRIC ENERGYPublic and self-producers generation in Brazil has reached 327.9 TWh in 2001, a result 6% lower than that of 2000, namely, 262.6 TWh from public hydraulic generation (-12%), 38.7 TWh from public thermal generation (+52.6%) and 26.6 TWh from self-producers (+6.3%).
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