Energy and Emission Matrix
9. Transport Sector
a) Special Considerations about the Transport Sector
The Transport Sector got a special treatment due to its peculiarities. This sector includes mixed kinds of vehicles from different modalities, namely collective, freight and individual transport. The energy consumption is given by modalities but there is no explicit differentiation between freight and passenger vehicles.
After the first petroleum crisis, diesel oil was considered a “social fuel” and a smaller price per energy unit was established for it. This advantage was additionally reinforced by the larger efficiency of the Diesel cycle engines compared with those of the Otto cycle. The result was a full migration of heavy vehicles to the diesel cycle. There was an increase of the light commercial class vehicles in the Diesel cycle. The individual and passenger transport vehicles were forbidden to do that. This prohibition outlived the market opening to vehicle imports so that in the last two decades the individual (land) transport of passengers became almost exclusively of the Otto cycle type (gasoline, fuel mixture, hydrated alcohol and natural gas). The commercial light vehicles of this cycle can be assimilated without difficulties to the passenger transportation in what regards consumption characteristics.
There is no major inconvenience as well to treat the diesel light commercial vehicles assimilated to the collective and freight transport although it is increasing the number of vehicles that are theoretically freight vehicles but that are being used for individual transport.
However, from the point of view of consumption it is not worth while to separate these vehicle nor the small number of the existing diesel cars.
The convenience of separating the vehicles for personal transport from those for collective transport and for freight, when projecting demand, is that the first ones follow a different dynamics of use. One can assume that freight transportation follows, as it actually happens, a consumption dynamics closely linked to the productive economic activity. As to individual transport, even though it is many times used for productive needs, it has a dynamics associated with the consumption capacity of their owners and it satisfies other individual needs.
An additional difficulty in treating the problem is the very low reliability of the official statistics about the fleet. There is no serious study regarding consumption that uses the fleet number officially supplied except in special occasions of vehicles registration. In a previous work (Report to the MCT published by e&e) the fleet was evaluated by type of vehicle and fuel since 1960. Through an iterative process that considered the sale of diesel, gasoline and hydrated alcohol vehicles, the information about the fleet when the vehicles were registered by DENATRAN, fuels consumption and some basic hypothesis about the yield of these fuels, it was possible to infer the scraping curves and the consumption variation as a function of the age of the vehicle.
From this process
resulted also the division between the consumption of the freight fleet
and that of the collective one regarding the old gasoline vehicles.
Figure 56: Illustration of the process used to separate the consumption of light and heavy vehicles: The consumption curve of equivalent light vehicle results from considering the consumption of a heavy vehicle equal to that of 9 light ones.
The evaluation of gasoline consumption (and eventually that of hydrated alcohol) used by
heavy vehicles in the past uses this type of result. As we can infer from the graphic, the consumption of heavy Otto vehicles was important, from the relative point of view, only in the seventies.
b) Freight Transport/ Passenger Transport Ratio in Equivalent Energy
There is an interaction among different transport modules that compete among themselves in some areas. From the methodological point of view it is convenient to treat them as a whole due to this possibility of substitution. A new efficiency factor by module could be introduced which considers the energy consumption of the different transport modalities per transported ton or per transported passenger. This differentiation was not made in the present approach. Besides, this inter-substitution can be detected through the consuming data.
In Figure 57 we represent the equivalent energy used in the freight transport and collective transport by GDP unit. For the extrapolation we have considered a projected value for 2020 of 0.0 64 kEP/US$94 (value relative to the global GDP). The use of the GDP and not of the sectorial product is due to the fact that it is expected that this variable will be directly related to the global economic activity. The “good behavior” of the Equivalent Energy of the Transport Sector/ GDP ratio reflects the correctness of the adopted hypothesis.
Figure 57: Historical and extrapolated values Equivalent Energy/TGDP in the freight and collective transport.
The values of the Equivalent Energy/GDP parameter, of the GDP and of equivalent energy in transport are shown in Table 34 for the selected years. The values of equivalent energy corresponding to the modalities, obtained as described in the following item, are also indicated.
Participation of the Modalities in the Collective and Freight Transport
The road modality has been predominant in Brazil in terms of energy consumption. A more complete approach from the point of view of possible inter-modal substitution would imply the need of a new physical model for this segment too. Since the participation has not been considerably changed regarding the future (which means, for example, that the railway transport would almost double until 2020 in the adopted scenario) this approach was not followed in the present “run” of the matrix. The physical model corresponds to the road transport where the influence of the consumption evolution of the existing fleet and the input of vehicles structure was explicitly considered in the energy consumption evaluation. The emissions were obtained from the coefficients for the sector.
Figure 58 shows the participation of the transport modalities and Figure 59 shows the projected energy values for each modality.
Figure 58: Participation of modalities in the Collective and Freight Transport.
The graphic of the participation shows a continuous loss in the participation of the railway transport (accentuated in the nineties) in the relative consumption which corresponds to an effective loss in the participation of this modality. The aerial modality regained at the end of the nineties the participation it had at the start of the eighties. It should be noted that the individual aerial transport was not separated from the total aerial transport because it is not significant. The hydro-way modality, benefited from 1973 on from the elevated petroleum prices, declined rapidly from 1986 on when these prices went down. This decline was stressed by the dismantling of the governmental activity in this modality. There is not available separate data relative to energy consumption in individual transport as well. The road transport that had lost participation in consumption in the Sector when petroleum prices went up, accentuated its participation after the “cold shock” of petroleum prices and with the reduction of participation of modalities where the government influence was strong.
Figure 59: Consumption values by modality. Even maintaining the (low) participation of railway and hydro-way transport, there is a significant increase in absolute values of energy (and its use) in these modalities. This means a reversion of reduction was verified from 1986 on.
d) Participation of Energy Sources in Transport
Before examining the participation of the different energy sources by modality it is interesting to observe which is the relative participation of the different types of energy sources in this use. In Figure 60 we represent the participation of the different types of energy sources in the Transport Sector.
It can be observed in Figure 60 that Brazil is the only country with visible participation of biomass. The electricity participation is more important in Russia and Poland, countries that participated in the soviet block. More socialized countries like Sweden and Austria have also a larger participation of electricity. In some countries where there is a large presence of natural gas, its participation is significant as in the case of Algeria, Argentina, Canada and Russia. In the remaining countries the predominance of petroleum products is almost absolute.
e) Participation of Energy Sources in the Road Modality (Collective and Freight)
The participation of fuels in the modality is shown in Figure 61. It was taken into account the Otto vehicles fleet whose consumption presented a rapid decline. It was supposed that in the future the predominance almost absolute of diesel would be maintained and this could be changed only with a deep alteration of the relative prices of fuels. A participation of 2% of Otto cycle vehicles (not presently observed in the sales) was assumed for the future.
Figure 61: Participation of fuels in collective and freight Road Transport.
f) Participation of Energy Sources in the Railway Transport
In Figure 62 one can observe the historical and projected evolution of the participation of energy sources in the modality relative to railway transport.
Figure 62: Representations of the evolution of the energy sources participation in the Railway Sector. From 1990 on only diesel and electricity remained.
The Railway Sector has been until now a sector in deactivation in Brazil. With the perspective of privatization this deactivation was accelerated. When this is effected and with the start of toll collection for road transport there are some indications that a reactivation is possible. In order not to loose its participation, as we have considered here, it is necessary for the railway transport to double in 20 years (and the energy consumption in the modality).
g) Participation of Energy Sources in Aerial Transport Modality
In Figure 63 we show the historical and projected participation of energy sources in the aerial transport. The aviation kerosene dominates the modality almost completely.
Figure 63: Participation of fuels in aviation.
h) Participation of Energy Sources in the Hydro-way Modality
The participation of energy sources in the hydro-way modality is shown in Figure 64. The fuel participation has been quite stable along the years and it was supposed to follow the same pattern in the future. In what regards this type of transport it should be pointed out that the historical participation indicates that there is a large potential for participation in this modality. The dismantling of the national coastal traffic, besides the drop of petroleum prices, explain the behavior observed in the participation previously shown of this modality in the total transport. Since in this first run we have an inertial scenario, the low participation of hydro-way observed in the years was considered to remain so.
.Figure 64: Consumption participation in the hydro-way transport that is divided in time almost in fixed proportions between fuel and diesel oil.
i) Individual Transport
The projection of individual transport was made based on the fleet, as described in previous report. For this purpose it was necessary to reconstitute the fleet by modality and type of fuel from 1960 on. The known fleet values from other countries were also used in the projection. The fleet was correlated with the GDP per inhabitant in purchasing-power price (PPP). Consequently, it resulted a direct dependency of the fleet on the economic scenario and the projected population growth.
In the graphic of Figure 66 we show the historical values for Brazil and those corresponding to other countries. The slope of the general curve was used to extrapolate the Brazilian data. In the present work we have also found a correlation between consumption by vehicle for personal use and the real price of Otto cycle fuels. This price was considered as the average, per participation in the market, of consumer price of gasoline (fuel mixture) and that of alcohol.
The result for the historical and projected fleet, compared with consumption in equivalent energy, is shown in Figure 67.
Figure 66: Projection of the Brazilian fleet of light vehicle using historical values for Brazil and values for different countries in a chosen year.
Figure 67: Fleet and Consumption Projection of Otto cycle vehicles (light).
Figure 68: Consumption per light vehicle and fuel price relative to that of gasoline (fuel mixture) in 1998. The correlation and the assumed prices were used in the consumption projection.
k) Participation of Fuels in the Individual Transport
The consumption projection of the Otto cycle should be coupled with an assumption regarding the participation of vehicles in the market by fuel. This participation oscillated in the past between gasoline and alcohol and it was never possible to balance the market in an intermediary value. Within the idea of maintaining the observed trend, it was assumed only a residual participation of alcohol vehicle sale (2%). It was also assumed, according to observed trends, the introduction of natural gas vehicles in the market although the economic reasons for that have not yet been demonstrated. Figure 69 shows the historical and assumed evolution for alcohol vehicles in the market. The program that was developed permits an instantaneous simulation of other hypothesis concerning the participation of alcohol vehicles in the market.
Figure 69: Historical and projected participation of alcohol vehicles in the market.
In Figure 70 we show the historical and projected evolution of the participation of anhydrous alcohol in the fuel mixture. It was necessary to consider that from 20% on the caloric equivalence would become valid since no modifications are expected in the future in order to use the created potential of larger compression. Besides, it would be possible to define a fuel with a different composition of alcohol and gasoline. In practice the value of 22% with a variation of +/- 3% seems to fit the world standard for vehicles but without optimizing the yield and the emissions. Our projection considers a mixture of 25% for the future.
Figure 71 shows the historical and projected evolution of fuel consumption in light Otto cycle vehicles. It can be observed that the presence of hydrated alcohol tends to be limited in what regards participation and possibly, geographic localization.
Figure 70: Historical and Projected participation of anhydrous alcohol in fuel mixture (commercial gasoline)
Figure 71: Historical and projected consumption in light vehicles
In Figure 72 we show the residual consumption of the present alcohol fleet (0% sale) and for a hypothesis of 15% of alcohol vehicles participation. With the logistic difficulties regarding alcohol distribution, if nothing is changed, the hydrated alcohol consumption would tend to zero more rapidly than shown. The hypothesis of an intermediary participation collides with difficulties of market balance already observed in the past.
Figure 72: Alternatives for fuel consumption with 0% (residual) and 15% alcohol vehicles sales.
The consolidation of results for individual, freight or collective vehicles permits to obtain the general table of road transport whose consumption in equivalent energy is shown in Figure 73.
Figure 73:Fuel Consumption in Road Transport in 10^6 EP of equivalent energy as percent in this type of transport.
l) Final Energy in Transport
The projection of Final Energy in transport is obtained from the consolidation equivalent energy consumption and its transformation into final energy using appropriate coefficients.
Figure 74: Final Energy in the Transport Sector, historical and projected values (ERRADA)
Figure 74: Participation of the different sources in the Transport Sector in final energy
Table 35: Final Energy in the Transport Sector 1000 tep/year
m) Emissions Corresponding to the Use of Final Energy in the Transport Sector
In Figure 75 we show the projection of CO2 emission in the Transport Sector. These emissions were obtaining by applying the coefficients of Table 36 to the Final Energy values for each year.
Table 36: Emission Coefficients in Gg/1000tEP for CO2 and t/1000 tEP for other gases
Values supplied by
Branca Americano from MCT corresponding to those used in the
The corresponding CO2 emissions are indicated in Table 37 and Figure 75
Table 37: CO2 Emissions in Gg/year
(*) Non-accountable for values because they are from renewable fuel (biomass)
Figure 75: CO2 Emissions due to final use of energy in the Transport Sector. The values represented in “punched” form should not be considered in what regards the greenhouse effect.
The CO emissions, in Gg/year, are indicated in Table 38 and in Figure 76
Table 38: CO Emissions in Gg/year
Figure 76: Historical and projected CO emissions for the Transport Sector.
The CH4 emissions, in Gg/year are indicated in Table 39 and in Figure 77
Table 39: CH4 emissions in Gg/year in the Transport Sector
Figure 77: Historical and projected CH4 emissions for the Transport Sector.
The Nox emissions, in Gg/year, are indicated in Table 40 and in Figure 78
Table 40: Nox emissions in Gg/year in the Transport Sector
Figure 78: Historical and projected NOx emissions for the Transport Sector.
The N2O emissions, in Gg/year, are indicated in Table 41 and in Figure 79
Table 41: N2O Emissions in Gg/in the Transport Sector
Figure 79: Historical and projected N2O emissions for the Transport Sector.
The NMVOCs emissions, in Gg/year are indicated in Table 42 and in Figure 80
Table 42: NMVOCs emissions in Gg/year in the Transport Sector
Figure 80: Historical and projected NMVOCs emissions for the Transport Sector.
Graphic Edition/Edição Gráfica:
Tuesday, 11 November 2008.