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Economy & Energy
No 30: February-March 2002  
 ISSN 1518-2932

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e&e No 30

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Technological Prospecting

On the Way to Sustainable Development

Energy and Emission Matrix 

Residential Sector

Transport Sector

http://ecen.com

 

8. Residential Sector

The Residential Sector has no product of its own, or at least it is not calculated in the National Accounts. From the energy point of view it is a sector of average importance. From the social point of view the residential energy consumption is of greatest relevance since energy is indispensable for enjoying the most essential comfort of modern life. Alternatively, one can try to use a methodology analogous to that for other sectors and use the global product as an indicator of the economic activity.

a) Per capita GDP and Energy Consumption in the Residential Sector

Figure 56 shows that the energy consumption per inhabitant is sensitive to variations of the per capita GDP. However, countries with relatively constant standard of living (in purchasing-power parity), group of developed countries with GDP/inhab. close to 20 thousand dollars annually present a large discrepancy in what regards per capita consumption expressed in equivalent energy. Exceptionally cold countries generally present a more intense energy consumption. Socialist (or former socialist) countries also stand out in what regards consumption relative to income level which is coherent with a larger social concern but can also reflect the incoherence of relative prices in society with administered prices. Brazil presents much lower consumption indexes, even considering its income group.   

Figure 56: Equivalent Energy Consumption per inhabitant in the Residential Sector

 

The energy consumption evolution per inhabitant in Brazil followed from 1970 to 1999 the path shown in Figure 57.

Figure 57: Evolution of per capita residential consumption as a function of GDP/inhab in Brazil.

 
Figure 58: Equivalent Energy/GDP as a function of GDP (PPP)/inhab for various countries and historical values for Brazil.

The graphic of Figure 58 (data relative to Brazil in 1996) is a composition of data from the two previous figures and it shows the Energy/GDP values for different countries and the historical values for Brazil. A second degree polynomial was fitted to the data with the objective of orienting the projection.

b) Projection of Equivalent Energy in the Domestic Sector

In Figure 59 we show the evolution expected for the next years of the equivalent energy consumption values per inhabitant as a function of the expected growth of the GDP/inhabitant relative to the reference scenario. For the extrapolation we have considered a path “parallel” to the polynomial fitted to the data from several countries and to the Brazilian historical values. 

 
Figure 59: Evolution of equivalent energy/inhabitant as a function of GDP/inhabitant for the Residential Sector

From the GDP/inhabitant path of the considered reference scenario and from the evolution projected by IBGE regarding the population and using the extrapolation indicated in Figure 59, one can obtain the evolution of equivalent energy consumption in the Residential Sector. The evolution of the residential consumption is shown together with the Brazilian GDP evolution shown in Figure 60.

 
Figure 60 Equivalent : Energy for the Residential Sector and GDP for Brazil (historical and projected values).

c) Participation of Energy Sources in the Residential Sector in Equivalent Energy

 
Figure 61: Energy Distribution in the Residential Sector in different countries in 1996.

In Figure 61 we can observe the energy distribution in the Residential Sector in 1996 for countries with different GDP/inhabitant (also indicated). The importance of the biomass participation diminishes with development which increases the electricity participation. Brazil presents already electricity participation higher than the average value of OECD countries. However, it should be remembered that domestic heating is of little importance in Brazil due to climatic factors. In Brazil electricity is much used for heating bathing water. There still is a large potential for expansion of air conditioning which is now (and probably will be in the future) predominantly electric. 

In Figure 62 we show the evolution of participation of different energy forms (grouped) in the Residential Sector that shows a decline in the biomass participation which was extrapolated for the future. The participation of LPG + natural gas was supposed to be practically constant and it was assumed a small increase of electricity participation.

 

Figure 62: Participation of energy forms (grouped) in equivalent energy,  historical and projected.

d) Participation of Energy Sources in Final Energy

The participation in final energy can be obtained from the adequate transformation coefficients for the sector. In Figure 63 and Table 34 are indicated the projected values for residential final energy.  

Figure 53: Final Energy consumption in the Residential Sector, where historical and projected values are indicated

 

Table 26: Projected Values of Final Energy for the Residential Sector (10^6 tEP)

 

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

NATURAL GAS

104

309

743

1322

2629

FIREWOOD

6246

4800

3876

3777

4138

 TOTAL PRIMARY

6350

5109

4619

5099

6766

LPG 

6409

7201

9135

11178

13001

GAS

68

100

101

80

57

ELECTRICITY 

24670

28970

36816

46046

59147

VEGETAL COAL

366

353

289

257

243

TOTAL SECONDARY 

31514

36623

46341

57562

72448

Total Biomass 

6246

4800

3876

3777

4138

TOTAL

37863

41733

50960

62661

79215

e) Emissions Corresponding to Consumption in Final Energy

From the final energy consumption and the emission coefficients for the Sector one can calculate the final emissions. As in the other sectors, the values used were those supplied by the team that is elaborating the National Inventory of Emissions (values supplied by Branca Americano to the e&e staff). The values used in the extrapolation, shown in Table 27, correspond to the year 1999.

It should be observed that it will only be shown the emission coefficients for energy sources that were projected to be used in the Sector in the period 2000/2020.

Table 27: Emissions Coefficients in the Residential Sector, CO2 Gg/10^3tEP, others/10^3tEP

 

CO2

CO

CH4

NOX

N2O

NMVOCS

NATURAL GAS

2.272

0.570

0.122

1.831

0.004

0.203

FIREWOOD

4.097

429.566

9.021

5.155

0.172

25.774

FUEL OIL

3.290

0.793

0.059

8.131

0.014

0.215

LPG

4.097

429.566

9.021

5.155

0.172

25.774

GAS

2.272

0.673

0.174

1.780

0.004

0.203

ELECTRICITY 

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

VEGETAL COAL

4.458

300.696

8.591

4.296

0.043

4.296

Source: MCT: Communicated by Branca Americano to e&e

The application of these coefficients to the final energy data yield the values indicated in the graphics for each gas that are considered to contribute to the greenhouse effect. The results for CO2, CO, CH4, NOX, N2O and NMVOCs are shown in Figures 54 to 59 and Tables 28 to 33.

 

Figure 54: Historical and projected emissions from the use of final energy by energy source in the residential sector. In the case of CO2 (and CO) emissions corresponding to the use of renewable biomass  do not change the inventory in the long term and do not contribute to the greenhouse effect. These values are indicated in the figure in “punched” form.

 

Table 28: CO2 emissions in Gg/year

 

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

 

NATURAL GAS

236

701

1688

3003

5971

 

FIREWOOD

25590

19669

15881

15474

16953

*

 TOTAL PRIMARY

25826

20370

17570

18477

22925

 

LPG

17190

19314

24501

29980

34870

 

GAS

155

227

228

183

129

 

ELECTRICITY 

0

0

0

0

0

 

VEGETAL COAL

1631

1572

1290

1147

1084

*

TOTAL SECONDARY 

18977

21113

26019

31309

36083

 

Total without Biomass 

19213

21814

27707

34312

42054

 

TOTAL

44803

41483

43588

49786

59008

 

(*) Non-accounted for emissions because they come from renewable biomass

 

Figure 55: Historical and projected emissions in the residential use of energy sources. As in the CO2 emissions, the CO emissions should not be accounted for in what concerns the greenhouse effect.

 

Table 29: CO emissions in Gg/year

 

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

 

NATURAL GAS

0.1

0.2

0.4

0.8

1.5

 

FIREWOOD

2683.0

2062.1

1665.0

1622.4

1777.4

*

 TOTAL PRIMARY

2683.0

2062.3

1665.5

1623.1

1778.9

 

LPG

2.8

3.1

3.9

4.8

5.6

 

GAS

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.0

 

 ELECTRICITY 

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

 

VEGETAL COAL

110.1

106.0

87.0

77.4

73.1

*

TOTAL SECONDARY 

112.9

109.2

91.0

82.2

78.8

 

Total without Biomass 

112.9

109.4

91.4

83.0

80.3

 

TOTAL

2795.9

2171.5

1756.4

1705.4

1857.7

 

(*) Non-accounted for emissions because they come from renewable biomass

 

Figure 55: Historical and projected emissions in the residential use of energy sources. As in the CO2 emissions, the CO emissions should not be accounted for in what concerns the greenhouse effect.

 

Table 30: CH4 emissions in Gg/year

 

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

NATURAL GAS

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

FIREWOOD

56.3

43.3

35.0

34.1

37.3

 TOTAL PRIMARY

56.4

43.3

35.1

34.2

37.6

LPG

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

GAS

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

ELECTRICITY 

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

VEGETAL COAL

3.1

3.0

2.5

2.2

2.1

TOTAL SECONDARY 

3.5

3.4

2.9

2.8

2.7

TOTAL

59.8

46.7

38.0

37.0

40.4

 

Figure 56: Historical and  projected emissions from the final use of energy in residences.

 

Table 31: NOx emissions in Gg/year

 

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

NATURAL GAS

0.2

0.6

1.4

2.4

4.8

FIREWOOD

32.2

24.7

20.0

19.5

21.3

 TOTAL PRIMARY

32.4

25.3

21.3

21.9

26.1

LPG

12.9

14.5

18.4

22.6

26.2

GAS

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.1

 ELECTRICITY 

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

VEGETAL COAL

1.6

1.5

1.2

1.1

1.0

TOTAL SECONDARY 

14.6

16.2

19.9

23.8

27.4

TOTAL

47.0

41.5

41.2

45.7

53.5

 

Figure 57: Historical and  projected emissions from the final use of energy in residences.

 

Table 32: N2O emissions in Gg/year

 

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

NATURAL GAS

0.000

0.001

0.003

0.005

0.011

FIREWOOD

1.073

0.825

0.666

0.649

0.711

TOTAL PRIMARY

1.074

0.826

0.669

0.654

0.722

LPG

0.028

0.031

0.039

0.048

0.056

GAS

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

 ELECTRICITY

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

VEGETAL COAL

0.016

0.015

0.012

0.011

0.010

TOTAL SECONDARY

0.044

0.046

0.052

0.059

0.067

TOTAL

1.117

0.873

0.721

0.714

0.788

 

Figure 55: Historical and  projected emissions from the final use of energy in residences.

 

Table 33: NMOVCs emissions in Gg/year

 

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

NATURAL GAS

0.021

0.063

0.151

0.269

0.535

FIREWOOD

160.977

123.728

99.902

97.343

106.646

TOTAL PRIMARY

160.998

123.790

100.053

97.612

107.181

LPG

1.377

1.547

1.962

2.401

2.792

GAS

0.014

0.020

0.020

0.016

0.012

ELECTRICITY

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

VEGETAL COAL

1.572

1.515

1.243

1.105

1.045

TOTAL SECONDARY 

2.963

3.082

3.225

3.523

3.849

TOTAL 

163.961

126.872

103.278

101.134

111.030

Graphic Edition/Edição Gráfica:
MAK
Editoração Eletrônic
a

Revised/Revisado:
Thursday, 19 February 2004
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