Economy
& Energy
No 30: February-March
2002
ISSN 1518-2932
No
30 emPortuguês
Support: MCT
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Economy
& Energy |
No
30 em Português |
Support: MCT |
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On the Way to Sustainable Development Energy and Emission Matrix
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8. Residential SectorThe Residential Sector has no product of its own, or at least it is not calculated in the National Accounts. From the energy point of view it is a sector of average importance. From the social point of view the residential energy consumption is of greatest relevance since energy is indispensable for enjoying the most essential comfort of modern life. Alternatively, one can try to use a methodology analogous to that for other sectors and use the global product as an indicator of the economic activity. a) Per capita GDP and Energy Consumption in the Residential Sector Figure 56 shows that
the energy consumption per inhabitant is sensitive to variations of the
per capita GDP. However, countries with relatively constant standard of
living (in purchasing-power parity), group of developed countries with GDP/inhab.
close to 20 thousand dollars annually present a large discrepancy in what
regards per capita consumption expressed in equivalent energy.
Exceptionally cold countries generally present a more intense energy
consumption. Socialist (or former socialist) countries also stand out in
what regards consumption relative to income level which is coherent with a
larger social concern but can also reflect the incoherence of relative
prices in society with administered prices. Brazil presents much lower
consumption indexes, even considering its income group.
Figure 56: Equivalent Energy Consumption per inhabitant in the Residential Sector
The energy consumption
evolution per inhabitant in Brazil followed from 1970 to 1999 the path
shown in Figure 57.
Figure 57: Evolution of per capita residential consumption as a function of GDP/inhab in Brazil.
The graphic of Figure 58 (data relative to Brazil in 1996) is a composition of data from the two previous figures and it shows the Energy/GDP values for different countries and the historical values for Brazil. A second degree polynomial was fitted to the data with the objective of orienting the projection. b) Projection of Equivalent Energy in the Domestic Sector In Figure 59 we show the evolution expected for the next years of the equivalent energy consumption values per inhabitant as a function of the expected growth of the GDP/inhabitant relative to the reference scenario. For the extrapolation we have considered a path “parallel” to the polynomial fitted to the data from several countries and to the Brazilian historical values.
From the GDP/inhabitant path of the considered reference scenario and from the evolution projected by IBGE regarding the population and using the extrapolation indicated in Figure 59, one can obtain the evolution of equivalent energy consumption in the Residential Sector. The evolution of the residential consumption is shown together with the Brazilian GDP evolution shown in Figure 60.
c) Participation of Energy Sources in the Residential Sector in Equivalent Energy
In Figure 61 we can observe the energy distribution in the Residential Sector in 1996 for countries with different GDP/inhabitant (also indicated). The importance of the biomass participation diminishes with development which increases the electricity participation. Brazil presents already electricity participation higher than the average value of OECD countries. However, it should be remembered that domestic heating is of little importance in Brazil due to climatic factors. In Brazil electricity is much used for heating bathing water. There still is a large potential for expansion of air conditioning which is now (and probably will be in the future) predominantly electric. In Figure 62 we show the evolution of participation of different energy forms (grouped) in the Residential Sector that shows a decline in the biomass participation which was extrapolated for the future. The participation of LPG + natural gas was supposed to be practically constant and it was assumed a small increase of electricity participation.
Figure 62: Participation of energy forms (grouped) in equivalent energy, historical and projected. d) Participation of Energy Sources in Final Energy The participation in
final energy can be obtained from the adequate transformation coefficients
for the sector. In Figure 63 and Table 34 are indicated the projected
values for residential final energy. Figure 53: Final Energy consumption in the Residential Sector, where historical and projected values are indicated
Table 26: Projected Values of Final Energy for the Residential Sector (10^6 tEP)
e) Emissions Corresponding to Consumption in Final Energy From the final energy consumption and the emission coefficients for the Sector one can calculate the final emissions. As in the other sectors, the values used were those supplied by the team that is elaborating the National Inventory of Emissions (values supplied by Branca Americano to the e&e staff). The values used in the extrapolation, shown in Table 27, correspond to the year 1999. It should be observed that it will only be shown the emission coefficients for energy sources that were projected to be used in the Sector in the period 2000/2020. Table 27: Emissions Coefficients in the Residential Sector, CO2 Gg/10^3tEP, others/10^3tEP
Source: MCT: Communicated by Branca Americano to e&e The application of these coefficients to the final energy data yield the values indicated in the graphics for each gas that are considered to contribute to the greenhouse effect. The results for CO2, CO, CH4, NOX, N2O and NMVOCs are shown in Figures 54 to 59 and Tables 28 to 33. 
Figure 54: Historical and projected emissions from the use of final energy by energy source in the residential sector. In the case of CO2 (and CO) emissions corresponding to the use of renewable biomass do not change the inventory in the long term and do not contribute to the greenhouse effect. These values are indicated in the figure in “punched” form.
Table 28: CO2 emissions in Gg/year
(*) Non-accounted for emissions because they come from renewable biomass
Figure 55: Historical and projected emissions in the residential use of energy sources. As in the CO2 emissions, the CO emissions should not be accounted for in what concerns the greenhouse effect.
Table 29: CO emissions in Gg/year
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