Economy & Energy
No 29: December 2001- January 2002   ISSN 1518-2932

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e&e No 29

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Energy and Emissions Matrix

Energy and Emissions Matrix 
Preliminary Edition

The Macroeconomic Scenario

Energy Matrix 1970/2000

Energy Matrix  2000/2020

Energy Emissions Matrix 

Sectorial Emissions

Commercial, Public and Other Services 

Argentine Crisis:

Argentina has Weight 

An Alternative for Argentina

 

 

Under Translation

http://ecen.com

Project : Supply of instruments for evaluating the emissions of greenhouse gases coupled to an energy matrix

Final Report – Executive Abstract

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Synopsis 

Executive Report concerning the results of the Project Supply of Instruments for Evaluating the Emissions of Greenhouse Gases Coupled to an Energy Matrix elaborated under an agreement between the Ministry of Science and Technology and e&e. For a reference economic scenario, it presents the equivalent energy demand. Based on the hypothesis of satisfying this demand by energy sources quantified in final energy, the emission of gases that originate the greenhouse effect are estimated. The period considered is 2000/2020. The historical emissions were also estimated.

Conclusions

Brazil does not have an Energy Matrix that embodies a National Energy Policy. The country does not have a long term Economic Planning as well. The best approximation to that was the project of the Presidency’s Secretariat of Strategic Affairs – SAE/PR for which the first version of our macroeconomic model was developed.

The present work cannot in itself represent this embodiment of the National Will for which it is necessary a consensus mechanism that furthermore should be able to go beyond the period of one government administration.

What we present here is a mechanism for creating this consensus and the values found should be considered, in the economic part, as the possible economic growth within the present framework and assuming that the internal saving with a moderate remuneration of external capital (real 4.3% annually) will be resumed. The results should be considered in the energy part as a consequence of the presented economic scenario and the continuation of the energy policy – not explicit – that is in force. Namely: vigorous introduction of natural gas both for direct use and thermoelectric generation, small participation of alcohol vehicles in the market and maintenance of the gasoline mixture policy, decrease of biomass use as the trend historically observed, preserving some specific niches, and conservation policy that incorporates the technologies already available. 

This implicit policy – whose boundary can be observed in different ways – replaces in practice a more explicit energy policy. However, it does not prevent the fall into the “market trap” that may induce long-term decisions based on short-term prices. This becomes more serious when the Government – directly or indirectly –guarantees profit that exempts the investor from a correct evaluation of future risks. 

There is no responsible country without an energy policy that takes into account the strategic aspect of this input. Countries that can project force externally, like the United States, have chosen military actions and policies that guarantee the external supply of petroleum. They are also concerned with their strategic reserves. One of the first concerns of the George W. Bush administration was to order to a high level commission a study on the energy future of the United States.

At the same time, less influent countries have chosen to pay an over-price regarding measures that induce conservation. Some examples are: the high prices of liquid fuel for the European consumer – with taxes that form a “cushion” that absorbs external variations – and the nuclear option adopted by France, Japan and South Korea. The anti-nuclear option adopted by Germany and Sweden is also a political attitude.

The results of the present “run” of the energy matrix and of the emissions for an average growth of 3.0% of the GDP indicate an annual average growth of 3.9% for electricity, 2.9% for mineral coal and its products and 3.4% for petroleum and natural gas. The use of natural gas would grow 8.75% annually while that of biomass only 0.3% annually. 

The CO2 emissions, the main gas producing the greenhouse effect and a new strategic aspect to be considered in the energy decisions, would grow about 3.4%. Considering the CO2 emitted in electricity generation, the emissions in 1999 of 0.5 kg of CO2 per dollar (values of 1994) of the GDP would change to almost 0.6 kg CO2/US$(1994). At the end of the eighties this factor was a little higher than 0.4 kg CO2/US$(1994) when the petroleum substitution policies produced their maximum effect. The scenario presented here could be considered as an inertial scenario of CO2 emissions regarding the evaluation of alternative policies.

Finally, we should point out that the methodology permits, with relative ease, to study alternative scenarios for economic growth and energy sources use.  

Introduction

The e&e staff that elaborated the methodology to evaluate the energy demand in equivalent energy and the corresponding emissions, provided this demand is satisfied in final energy, is composed of

Coordinator : Carlos Feu Alvim

Technical Staff:

Carlos Feu Alvim
Aumara Feu (*)
Eduardo Marques
Frida Eidelman
Omar Campos Ferreira
Othon Luiz Pinheiro da Silva

The results were presented to the Ministry of Science and Technology – MCT in a Final Report and in partial reports that were grouped by project’s goals at the closing of the project. 

The foreseen reports were the following ones and have already been delivered to the MCT:

Specification of Goals

1st. Description of use of the Macroeconomic Model and presentation of the Reference Scenario
2nd. Description of model for obtaining the Equivalent Energy Balance
3rd. Survey of emissions by equivalent energy by sector
4th. Description of physical modules of emission by sector for example cases. First non-automated run (thermal electricity)
5th. Model of Emissions by sector, automated run for example cases
6th. Use of Matrix results for generating emissions – example case - Impact of Reference Matrix and alternatives
7th Final Report and Delivery of the Model

Besides these reports (only in Portuguese) there is the Executive Summary that we are publishing in the present 29 issue of e&e 

Some modifications regarding form were made in order to adapt the project to working needs and to suggestions from e&e’s coordination and from the MCT itself. The executive report now presented to e&e readers was delivered as well. 

These reports are also available in our page http://ecen.com. This  summary aims at presenting the main results of the work. In Figure 0 we present the scheme followed in the elaboration of the work and in Table 0 the list of related work published in the present (No 29) and previous e&e issues. Other articles of interest are also listed. 

Table 0: Works Relative to the Matrix now available at e&e or to be available soon

Energy Matrix Project. e&e 22

Project for Supplying the Instrument for Elaborating the National Energy Matrix. e&e 22

Macroeconomic

Description of the Macroeconomic Module e&e 22. Projetar e Program. e&e 22

Reference Economic Scenario e&e 23

Scenario used for studying emissions and present Reference Scenario for the Energy and Emissions Matrix using the Projetar_e program e&e 23

Sectorial

Sectorial Module of the e&e's Energy and Emissions Matrix

The Sectorial Module permits, using a GDP scenario, to build a scenario of participation of the main sectors of the economy in the GDP value . e&e 27

Equivalent Energy

Module for Converting Final Energy into Equivalent Energy

It describes the conversion of Final Energy into Equivalent Energy from data of the Useful Energy Balance . e&e 22

Equivalent Energy and GDP

 

Subject

Title

Project

Project to the MCT of Energy and Emissions Matrix. e&e 29

Energy Matrix Project e&e 22

Project for Supplying the Instrument for Elaborating the National Energy Matrix e&e 22

Macroeconomic

 

Description of the Macroeconomic Module e&e 22. Projetar_e Program. Description of the  Macroeconomic Module  e&e 22

 

Reference Economic Scenario  e&e 23

 Scenario used for studying emissions and present Reference Scenario for the Energy and Emissions Matrix using the Projetar e program e&e 23

Sectorial

Sectorial Module of the e&e’s Energy and Emissions Matrix
The Sectorial Module permits, using a GDP scenario, to build a scenario of participation of the main sectors of the economy in the GDP value. e&e 27

Equivalent Energy

Module for Converting Final Energy into Equivalent Energy

It describes the conversion of Final Energy into Equivalent Energy from data of the Useful Energy Balance .e&e 22

 

Equivalent Energy and GDP
Economic activity and energy use present an obvious correlation. In the present work it is proposed the use of equivalent energy to study this correlation. The results are presented for countries with much differentiated development levels and they are compared with those obtained using primary, final, useful and equivalent energy
e&e 16  [work preceding that of the Matrix]

 

Equivalent Energy – Simplified Method using Final Energy Data

The preceding article presents the results regarding the conversion to Equivalent Energy of data of different countries aggregated in three economic sectors. In the present article we describe the methodology applied in Brazil and one simplified methodology for obtaining equivalent energy from data of the OECD Balance. e&e 18  [work preceding that of the Matrix]

Sectorial Results

Results of the Sectorial Module (Presented by Sector including results in Equivalent Energy, Final Energy and Emissions)

Agricultural and Husbandry Sector, Industrial Sector e&e 28

Services Sector (except Transport)  e&e 29.

Physical Modules

 

  Transport Physical Module Example of Method Application to Light Vehicles Sector e&e 18

 

Application of the Emissions Matrix Coefficients; Emission Coefficients in Heavy Vehicles; Emissions in Heavy Vehicles; Emissions in Light Vehicles  e&e 25

Note: this module uses physical characteristics of the fleet for the global calculation of emissions. In order to keep coherence with previous surveys made by MCT, the global result presented uses different coefficients.

 

 

Thermoelectric Generation 2000-2020 and Fuel Participation
Power Plants Participation in Generation by Type of Fuel
Necessary Thermal Generation Capacity

Conclusions and Sensitivity Evaluation

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CONTINUED 

Graphic Edition/Edição Gráfica:
MAK
Editoração Eletrônic
a

Revised/Revisado:
Friday, 13 May 2011
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