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Economy & Energy
No 29: November-December 2001-    ISSN 1518-2932

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Energy and Emissions Matrix

Energy and Emissions Matrix 
Preliminary Edition

The Macroeconomic Scenario

Energy Matrix 1970/2000

Energy Matrix  2000/2020

Energy Emissions Matrix 

Sectorial Emissions

Commercial, Public and Other Services 

Argentine Crisis:

Argentina has Weight 

An Alternative for Argentina

 

 

Under Translation

http://ecen.com

 

Continued

Project: Supply of Instruments for Evaluating the Emission of the Greenhouse Effect Gases Coupled to the Energy Matrix  - Final Report -  Executive Summary 

Energy Emissions Matrix 

The use of the coefficients adopted in the elaboration of the Brazilian communication concerning the emissions inventory permits to transform the final energy consumption data into emissions of greenhouse effect gases. By applying the coefficients adopted in 1999 for each sector, the following consolidated table of projected emissions was obtained:

Emission by Energy Source and by Sector

   a) CO2 Emissions

CO2 Projected Emissions in Gg/year

 

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

 

NATURAL GAS

12370.65

21267.27

32470.58

44813.75

62370.73

 

STEAM COAL

1407.23

6380.69

9007.86

9309.16

8982.42

 

MET. COAL

8490.71

6784.60

7969.14

10366.79

12844.23

 

FIREWOOD

54187.05

50999.61

46814.77

42287.14

38846.35

*

SUGARCANE PROD.

68293.86

68505.53

74493.43

80329.61

86343.73

*

OTHERS PRIMARY

8830.32

9264.58

9928.48

10750.68

11399.15

 

TOTAL PRIMARY

153579.82

163202.28

180684.26

197857.12

220786.61

 

DIESEL OIL  

91333.56

103289.75

118337.42

137893.52

168116.22

 

FUEL OIL

34047.70

40248.17

48232.00

57868.88

72973.96

 

GASOLINE

48032.22

58132.28

69629.34

83143.03

105563.75

 

LPG

20628.87

22640.74

28422.96

35124.49

41924.31

 

KEROSENE

9066.20

10416.64

12406.24

15076.64

19049.75

 

GAS

5361.39

7619.24

9387.80

10213.25

10868.07

 

MIN. COAL COKE

27250.23

34207.94

38837.21

40672.27

41177.71

 

VEGETAL COAL

17626.2

18344.9

19064.6

20369.6

22770.8

*

ETHYL ALCOHOL

13285.2

11921.1

13150.0

14706.7

18006.4

*

OTHER SEC.PETR.

21078.6

17781.5

19980.1

23232.4

27136.1

 

TAR

316.7

664.7

803.1

839.2

833.5

 

TOTAL SECONDARY

288027

325267

378251

439140

528421

 

Total without Biomass

304433

350662

415469

490365

597028

 

TOTAL

441607

488469

558935

636997

749207

 

(*) Non-accounted for values because they result from the use of biomass (renewable)

Results are shown in graphic of Figure 23.

 

Figure 23: CO2 emissions due to final energy use (historical and projected) in Gg/year. The “punched” values correspond to non-accounted for emissions due to biomass (renewable)

b) CO Emissions

CO Projected Emissions  in Gg/year

 

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

 

NATURAL GAS

16.18

26.32

39.61

53.81

72.20

 

STEAM COAL

1.37

6.20

8.75

9.04

8.72

 

MET. COAL

5.17

4.14

4.86

6.32

7.83

 

FIREWOOD

3484.83

2882.45

2471.34

2311.03

2364.68

*

SUGARCANE PROD.

1214.31

1217.45

1323.32

1427.57

1535.27

*

OTHERS PRIMARY

76.03

79.77

85.49

92.57

98.15

 

DIESEL OIL 

999.82

1147.67

1320.50

1536.25

1879.40

 

FUEL OIL  

49.40

59.35

77.02

89.57

104.40

 

GASOLINE

5621.26

6803.28

8148.79

9730.31

12354.23

 

LPG

5.08

5.13

6.17

7.52

8.98

 

NAPHTHA  

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

 

KEROSENE

12.69

14.56

17.32

21.04

26.54

 

GAS

3.72

5.34

6.63

7.28

7.83

 

MIN. COAL COKE

54.24

68.09

77.31

80.96

81.96

 

 ELECTRICITY

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

 

  VEGETAL COAL

735.1

763.3

783.1

830.1

925.4

*

 ETHYL ALCOHOL

1451.8

1302.7

1437.1

1607.2

1967.8

*

OTHER SEC. PETR.

13.1

11.2

12.7

14.6

16.9

 

TAR

0.3

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

 

Total without Biomass

7592

8989

10580

12471

15585

 

TOTAL

13744

14398

15821

17826

21461

 

(*)Non-accounted for values because they result from the use of biomass (renewable)

 

CO emissions, historical and projected, are shown in Figure 24.

 

Figure 24: Historical and Projected  CO emissions. The “punched” values correspond to non-accounted for emissions due to biomass (renewable)

c) CH4 Emissions

CH4 Projected Emissions in  Gg/year

 

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

NATURAL GAS

0.53

0.76

1.21

1.70

2.33

STEAM COAL

0.03

0.11

0.16

0.17

0.16

MET. COAL

0.07

0.05

0.06

0.08

0.10

FIREWOOD

71.16

58.15

49.43

46.41

48.48

SUGARCANE PROD.

21.24

21.30

23.16

24.98

26.85

OTHERS PRIMARY

0.84

0.88

0.95

1.03

1.09

DIESEL OIL

7.11

7.98

9.11

10.61

12.88

FUEL OIL

0.93

1.10

1.32

1.58

1.98

GASOLINE

13.95

16.88

20.22

24.14

30.65

LPG

0.38

0.41

0.52

0.64

0.76

 NAPHTHA

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

KEROSENE

0.06

0.07

0.09

0.11

0.14

GAS

0.06

0.10

0.11

0.12

0.12

MIN. COAL COKE

0.26

0.32

0.37

0.38

0.39

ELECTRICITY

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

VEGETAL COAL

34.0

35.4

36.7

39.3

43.9

ETHYL ALCOHOL

64.7

58.1

64.1

71.7

87.8

OTHER SEC. PETR.

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.3

TAR

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

TOTAL

216

202

208

223

258

In Figure 25 we show the evolution of emissions, historical and projected, of methane, due to the final use of energy.

 

Figure 25: CH4 emissions due to the final use of energy.

d) NOx Emissions

NOx Projected Emissions in Gg/year

 

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

NATURAL GAS

183.07

308.77

460.17

621.61

833.87

STEAM  COAL 

6.39

28.98

40.91

42.28

40.80

MET. COAL

34.52

27.58

32.40

42.15

52.22

FIREWOOD 

62.64

58.50

53.34

48.45

44.81

SUGARCANE PROD. 

48.28

48.42

52.65

56.78

61.04

OTHERS PRIMARY 

20.57

21.59

23.13

25.05

26.56

 DIESEL OIL  

829.19

956.14

1103.92

1281.54

1561.65

FUEL OIL 

173.18

206.17

255.06

302.22

369.74

GASOLINE 

419.19

507.34

607.67

725.61

921.28

LPG 

40.03

37.24

42.84

52.06

63.18

KEROSENE 

38.57

44.36

52.85

64.25

81.23

GAS

49.14

70.36

87.55

96.55

104.05

MIN. COAL COKE 

9.00

11.29

12.82

13.43

13.60

  VEGETAL COAL 

17.0

17.7

18.4

19.6

21.9

 ETHYL. ALCOHOL. 

103.8

93.1

102.7

114.9

140.7

 OTHER SEC. PETR.

110.0

96.9

111.2

126.9

143.6

TAR 

1.8

3.8

4.6

4.8

4.7

TOTAL

2146

2538

3062

3638

4485

Values for NOx emissions are presented in Figure 26.

 

Figure 26: NOx historical and projected emissions.

e) N2O Emissions

N2O Projected Emissions in Gg/year

 

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

NATURAL GAS

0.03

0.05

0.09

0.13

0.19

STEAM  COAL

0.02

0.10

0.15

0.15

0.14

 MET. COAL

0.09

0.07

0.09

0.11

0.14

FIREWOOD

2.28

2.15

1.97

1.78

1.64

SUGARCANE PROD.

2.83

2.84

3.09

3.33

3.58

OTHERS PRIMARY

0.13

0.14

0.15

0.16

0.17

 DIESEL  OIL

0.74

0.84

0.97

1.13

1.37

FUEL OIL

0.20

0.23

0.28

0.33

0.42

GASOLINE

0.42

0.51

0.61

0.73

0.93

LPG

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

  NAPHTHA

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

KEROSENE

0.25

0.29

0.34

0.42

0.53

GAS

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

MIN. COAL COKE

0.36

0.45

0.51

0.54

0.54

 ELECTRICITY

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

VEGETAL COAL

0.62

0.65

0.69

0.74

0.83

 ETHYL ALCOHOL

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

 OTHER SEC. PETR.

0.17

0.13

0.13

0.16

0.21

TAR

0.00

0.00

0.01

0.01

0.01

TOTAL

8.19

8.50

9.12

9.78

10.77

The values N2O emissions are presented in Figure 27.

 
Figure 27: N2O emissions due to final use of energy, historical and  projected values

f) NMVOCs Emissions

NMVOCS Projected Emissions in Gg/year

 

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

NATURAL GAS

1.11

1.91

2.91

4.01

5.59

STEAM COAL

0.30

1.38

1.94

2.01

1.94

 MET. COAL

1.31

1.05

1.23

1.60

1.98

FIREWOOD

218.63

179.05

153.73

142.75

148.48

SUGARCANE PROD.

35.39

35.50

38.61

41.63

44.75

OTHERS PRIMARY

1.56

1.64

1.75

1.90

2.01

 DIESEL OIL  

200.35

229.56

263.85

307.16

376.15

 FUEL OIL

8.06

9.72

12.88

14.87

16.98

GASOLINE 

1046.66

1266.75

1517.28

1811.76

2300.32

LPG

1.65

1.81

2.28

2.81

3.36

KEROSENE

6.28

7.19

8.55

10.37

13.06

GAS

0.26

0.37

0.45

0.49

0.51

MIN. COAL COKE

4.11

5.16

5.86

6.14

6.22

  VEGETAL COAL

17.0

17.7

18.4

19.6

21.9

 ETHYL ALCOHOL

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

 OTHER SEC. PETR.

1.3

1.2

1.3

1.5

1.7

TAR

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

TOTAL

1544

1760

2031

2369

2945

Figure 28 shows the historical and projected results of emissions of other hydrocarbons, excluding methane.

 

Figure 28: NMVOCs emissions due to the final use of energy, historical and  projected values

Emissions by Sector

When we focus our attention on the gas that is most relevant for the calculation of the greenhouse effect, CO2, we can verify the evolution of contribution to this effect of the different sectors. We observe that the transport and industrial sectors predominate in the CO2 emission. In Figure 29 we show the evolution of the emission of this gas in the period from 1970 to 2020, resulting from the final energy consumption. The renewable fuels are not included since they must not be accounted for in what concerns the greenhouse effect.

In Figure 30 we show the contribution of the sectors taking into account the indirect emissions from electricity generation. These indirect emissions are becoming more relevant since it is foreseen a non-negligible participation of thermal power plants using gas for electricity generation. 

 

Figure 29: CO2 emissions without renewable sources

Figure 30: CO2 emissions without renewable sources and including those from electricity generation

In Figure 31 we show separately the emissions due to final consumption of energy without renewable sources, the non-accounted for emissions due to the use of renewable sources and the emissions resulting from electrical energy production. These emissions, in the graphic of Figure 5 ,were distributed among the sectors according to their electricity consumption.


Figure 31: CO2 emissions due to final use of energy, to electricity production in thermal power plants and to the use of renewable sources (non-accounted for in what concerns the greenhouse effect)

 

The CO2 emission by GDP unit supplies an interesting measure for evaluating the evolution of emissions. 

 

Figure 32: CO2 emissions by sector by GDP unit .

In Figures 32 and 33 we can observe the contribution of the GDP growth to the emissions of each sector. It is simply the division of the data shown in the graphics 30 and 31 by the global GDP. The effect can be observed, in the transport sector of the alcohol program, since it decreases the emission during the period of the petroleum crises. The trend to growth in some sectors at the end of the period is under the influence of using thermal plants, of the increase of energy intensity already previously mentioned and of the reduced use of biomass.

 
Figure 33: Evolution of CO2 emissions by GDP unit .

 

The petroleum crisis has reduced the CO2 emissions by GDP unit because of the use of renewable sources. The trending behavior that oriented the present run of the Energy Matrix means a considerable increase in the CO2 emission by product unit. The observed trend in the nineties would continue in the two decades to follow it. 

 

Conclusions

 

Brazil does not have an Energy Matrix that expresses the National Energy Policy. The Country does not have a long term Economical Planning. The best approximation to that was the work carried out by the former Secretariat of Strategic Matters SAE/PR for which the first version of our macroeconomic model was developed. 

 

The present work cannot itself represent this expression of National Will, for which it is necessary a consensus mechanism that should be able as well to go beyond one government administration. 

 

What we present here is a mechanism for creating this consensus and the values found should be considered, in the economic part, as the possible economic growth in the present situation and assuming the resuming of internal saving and a moderate remuneration for the external capital (real 4.3% annually). In the energy part the results should be considered as resulting from the presented economic scenario and the continuation of the presently adopted - not explicitly -  energy policy. Namely: introduction of natural gas both for direct use or thermoelectric generation; small participation of alcohol vehicles in the market and maintenance of the gasoline mixture policy; decreasing  biomass use, as historically observed, while preserving some specific niches and conservation policy that incorporates the already available technologies. 

 

This implicit policy - whose boundaries can be seen in different ways - practically substitutes a more explicit energy policy. However, it does not prevent one to fall into "market traps" that may induce long term decisions based on short term prices. This is aggravated when the Government - directly or indirectly - guarantees profits which exempts the investor from a correct evaluation of future risks. 

 

There is no responsible country without an energy policy that takes into account the strategic aspects of this input. Countries capable of projecting external force, like the United States, have opted for political and military actions that guarantee the external supply of petroleum. They are also concerned about their strategic reserves. One of the first preoccupation of the W. Bush administration was to order to a high level commission to carry out a study about the energy future of the United States. 

 

At the same time, countries with less influence have opted for paying an over price through measures that induce conservation. Some examples are: the high price of liquid fuels for the European consumer - with taxes that form a "cushion" that absorbs external variations - and the nuclear option adopted by France, Japan and South Korea. Option against nuclear, like that of Germany and Sweden, is also an attitude concerning policy. 

 

The results of the present "run" of the energy and emission matrix for an average growth of 3.0% of the GDP indicated an average annual growth of 3.9% for electricity, 2.9% for mineral coal and its products and 3.4% for petroleum products and natural gas. The use of natural gas would grow 8.75 annually and that of biomass only .3% annually. 

 

The CO2 emissions, the main gas that causes the greenhouse effect and a new strategic aspect to be considered, would grow about 3.4%. Considering the CO2 from electricity generation,   instead of 0.5 kg of CO2 emission per dollar (values of 1994) of the GDP, in 1999 one would have almost 0.6 kg of CO2/US$(1994). At the end of the eighties, this factor was slightly above 0.4 kg CO2/US$(1994) when the petroleum substitution policy produced its maximum effect. The scenario presented here could be considered as an inertial scenario in what concerns CO2 emission for the purpose of alternative policies.

 

Finally we should point out that the methodology permits with relative ease to study alternative scenarios for economic growth and energy use.

(*) Part of the economic analysis of the present work is included in the PhD Thesis of Aumara Feu in the Economy Department of the Brasilia University.

Final

Graphic Edition/Edição Gráfica:
MAK
Editoração Eletrônic
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Revised/Revisado:
Tuesday, 11 November 2008
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