| No 29 Em Português
Project: Supply of Instruments for Evaluating the Emission of the Greenhouse Effect Gases Coupled to the Energy Matrix - Final Report - Executive Summary
For the elaboration of the Energy Matrix the following steps were followed:
In Figure 10 we present the Equivalent Energy/Product values used for extrapolating the energy sources consumption of the following sectors: Agriculture and Husbandry; Freight and Collective Transport; Industry; and Commerce and Other Services (excluding Transport).
Figure 10: Equivalent Energy / Product. For freight and collective transport, the correlation was established with the total GDP.
In the agriculture and husbandry and in freight and collective transport sectors (using mostly diesel), there is a good stability of the equivalent energy/ sectorial product at constant prices. In the industrial sector there was a large increase of the energy intensity. A preliminary analysis of energy use in the industrial activities reveals a large influence of metallurgy on this behavior. In Services, excluding transport, it was assumed that the intensity will reach a new plateau. The increase in number of stores and shopping centers and the larger use of air conditioning might have increased the intensity.
The energy demand to be used in individual transport vehicles (mostly Otto cycle vehicle)  was inferred from the correlation of fleet per inhabitant with the GDP per inhabitant. The consumption by vehicle considers the age of the existing vehicles and fuel price. In Figure 11 we show the correlation of fleet/inhabitant with GDP/inhabitant  for Brazil (historical values) and for various countries in 1996.
Figure 11: Fleet/inhabitant and GDP/inhabitant in purchasing-power parity. Data for Brazil are the historical ones.
In the Residential Sector the demand was also obtained from the evolution of the GDP/inhabitant as shown in Figure 12. The curve obtained for a set of countries (more countries than shown in the graphic) served the purpose of orienting the consumption growth in Brazil. The same procedure was adopted for the fleet projection.
Once the parameters of the previous section are defined, it is possible to project the equivalent energy for each sector from the assumed growth of the economy as a whole and the distribution of activities by sector. The results of this projection are shown in Figure 13.
In order to calculate the participation of the different energy sources, the historical behavior of this participation is analyzed. A comparison with the consumption structure of other countries can be an indication of future trends. As an example we will present the projection for the Industrial Sector. Figure 14 shows an aggregated projection of energy sources grouped by form and origin.
In the above figure it can be observed: a) a large cutback in the participation of petroleum products as a consequence of the price crisis at the end of the eighties; b) the growth of electricity participation as a consequence of technological modernization; c) the increase of mineral coal participation and of its products due to the growing importance of the steel industry and some substitutions among fuel sources; d) the penetration of natural gas which contributed in the last decade to some move back of electricity participation.
The demand projection took into consideration the historical trends. A comparison between the consumption structure in Brazil and that of other countries, based on an adaptation of OECD data for equivalent energy has also contributed to the analysis.
Figure 15 shows the participation of the energy sources grouped by countries, in a large spectrum of GDP/inhabitant. The countries are ordered by GDP/inhabitant.
Some interesting facts should be pointed out: a) according to what has historically happened in Brazil, the biomass participation is reduced when the GDP/inhabitant grows; b) electricity increases its participation when we examine the richer countries and it reaches a 50% plateau which is the average value of OECD countries; c) there is a clear inter-penetration of natural gas and electricity (consumption of one or other fuel according to availability) and of these energy sources with petroleum products; d) the use of natural gas is a function of its availability. Since this availability in Brazil is much larger than the present use, it means that there is a large space for expansion of its use in industry; and e) the use of mineral coal and its products is a function of the industry that predominates and of its availability. Some energy balances account for the process heat resulting from co-generation. This form of energy is very important in Russia and, even though to a lesser degree, also in Poland.
The participation of energy sources products is projected using a similar process inside each group of energy source. Sometimes, specially in less complex sectors or when each industrial activity is examined separately, it is more convenient to work directly with the different energy sources and not with the aggregations shown in Figure 14.
The projection result for final use in equivalent energy is shown in Figure 16 (participation in grouped values) and Figure 17 (absolute values by energy source). It should be mentioned that when we express energy in the form of equivalent energy we are making easier the study of other hypothesis concerning participation.
Figure 16: Participation of energy sources in grouped form
Figure 17: Projection of final use by energy source, expressed in equivalent energy.
The same coefficients used for converting final energy into equivalent energy for each sector can be used to generate the projection in final energy for each sector, once the participation of each sector is defined. We present for the grouped energy sources their growth in terms of final consumption and expressed in final energy. In Figure 18 and Table 2 it can be observed that for an accumulated economical growth of 88% between 1999 and 2020, the final energy would double. The same would happen with the use of petroleum and its products. The use of biomass would practically remain stable with a growth of only 7% in the whole period. The use of electricity would grow more than the GDP (1.3 of elasticity). A large growth (472%) of natural gas use is projected.
Since it is also foreseen a raise of its use for electricity generation, it should be verified the real availability of natural gas. Preliminarily, we point out that the figures that we have calculated for 2010 (28 million of tep/year including thermal generation) are practically equivalent to the goal announced by Petrobrás, namely 8 million m3/day for that year.
Table 2: Final Consumption in Final Energy 1000 tEP/year, historical and projected
Average Annual Growth Rates
Figure 18: Use of final energy
In Table 3 we present for the grouped energy sources the participation in final energy in final use and the growth of energy sources participation.
Table 3: Participation of Energy Sources in Final Energy
From the consolidation of the sectorial analysis that was carried out, the following results shown in Table 4 were obtained regarding the final energy projection for the selected years by energy source. The complete results are in an attached Excel spreadsheet.
Table 4: Final Energy 10^3 tEP
The historical and projected values are shown in Figure19.
Figure 19: Historical and projected final energy use
Figure 20: Participation by source in final energy for Brazil, historical and projected values.
It is also important to analyze if the introduction of natural gas does not negatively change the refining structure. It is true that in an open market there can be exchange of products among countries. In the case of introduction of natural gas there has always been the concern with curbs on the fuel oil market. This concern was exacerbated by the refining unbalance (planned for maximizing gasoline) that existed in the petroleum sector. This occurred for gasoline after the second petroleum crisis when the market of this fuel underwent a double attack, namely the “dieselization” of the fleet and the introduction of hydrated alcohol, besides the mixing of anhydrous alcohol with gasoline. Figure 20 shows that there will be no problems relative to the refining structure the space of fuel oil is preserved and that of gasoline is amplified. Actually, there are indications that there would also be room for natural gas to be used in vehicles or for more alcohol.
Figure 21: Historical consumption structure (in tEP of final energy). The historical values seem to show that refining difficulties relative to the proposed consumption structure are not expected. The existing LPG deficit shall be maintained
Another interesting consistency test is how energy is distributed among the sectors since this is an alternative criterion for projection that we have used in other approaches. In Figure 21 we can observe the participation in final energy.
The drop in the residential sector participation observed in Figure 22 can be due the shift from firewood, with low efficiency, to other more efficient energy sources. The increase in the participation of the commercial sector and others is due to the already mentioned energy intensity.
 Gasoline (mixture of fuels containing anhydrous alcohol), hydrated alcohol or compressed natural gas.
 Converted American dollars of 1995 by the purchasing-power parity.
Graphic Edition/Edição Gráfica:
Friday, 13 May 2011.