Economy & Energy
No 29-November-December 2001   ISSN 1518-2932

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e&e No 29

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Argentina has Weight 

An Alternative for Argentina

The Macroeconomic Scenario

Energy Matrix 1970/2000

Energy Matrix  2000/2020

Energy Emissions Matrix 

Energy and Emissions Matrix 
Preliminary Edition

7. Commercial, Public and Other Services except Transport

 

 

Continued

Project: Supply of Instruments for Evaluating the Emission of the Greenhouse Effect Gases Coupled to the Energy Matrix  - Final Report -  Executive Summary 

Energy Matrix  2000/2020

For the elaboration of the Energy Matrix the following steps were followed:

1.    Elaboration of the computer program to help in the macroeconomic projection, taking into account the restrictions to growth (specific study and program)

2.    Elaboration of the sectorial module that takes into account:

a.      The historical behavior of the sectors in Brazil (specific study);

b.      The evolution of the economic activity composition of other countries (specific study);

c.      Important aspects related to the evolution of the Brazilian and world society in the two next decades (consensus method by interaction of the group with the model);

d.      Transposition of available economic data to an structure coherent with that of BEN (use of BEN’s work) and for OECD countries in accordance with the energy balances published by that organization (specific study). 

3.      Method for converting final energy into equivalent energy using:

a.      Historical survey for Brazil (evaluation of coefficients based on the Useful Energy Balances of the MME);

b.      Adaptation of the methodology in order to carry out the evaluation for other countries (specific study);

c.      Elaboration of program that yields data in equivalent energy, by sector , year or energy source (specific program for final and equivalent energy).

4.      Survey of the evolution of the equivalent energy/product ratio in the sector along time or as a function of other variables specific for each sector (specific study by sector, sometimes with the construction of “physical modules” that take into account equipment and technology of the sector).

5.      Projection of the Equivalent Energy based on the economic activity of the sector and on the energy intensity (presented in the sectorial study);

6.      Distribution of equivalent energy by energy source for each sector (idem);

7.      Re-conversion of equivalent energy values to final energy (idem).

Projection of Equivalent Energy as a Function of Product or Other Parameter

In Figure 10 we present the Equivalent Energy/Product values used for extrapolating the energy sources consumption of the following sectors: Agriculture and Husbandry; Freight and Collective Transport; Industry; and Commerce and Other Services (excluding Transport).

Figure 10: Equivalent Energy / Product. For freight and collective transport, the correlation was established with the total GDP.

In the agriculture and husbandry and in freight and collective transport sectors (using mostly diesel), there is a good stability of the equivalent energy/ sectorial product at constant prices. In the industrial sector there was a large increase of the energy intensity.  A preliminary analysis of energy use in the industrial activities reveals a large influence of metallurgy on this behavior. In Services, excluding transport, it was assumed that the intensity will reach a new plateau. The increase in number of stores and shopping centers and the larger use of air conditioning might have increased the intensity.

 

The energy demand to be used in individual transport vehicles (mostly Otto cycle vehicle) [1] was inferred from the correlation of  fleet per inhabitant with the GDP per inhabitant. The consumption by vehicle considers the age of the existing vehicles and fuel price. In Figure 11 we show the correlation of fleet/inhabitant with GDP/inhabitant [2] for Brazil (historical values) and for various countries in 1996. 

Figure 11: Fleet/inhabitant and GDP/inhabitant in purchasing-power parity. Data for Brazil are the historical ones.

 

In the Residential Sector the demand was also obtained from the evolution of the GDP/inhabitant as shown in Figure 12. The curve obtained for a set of countries (more countries than shown in the graphic) served the purpose of orienting the consumption growth in Brazil. The same procedure was adopted for the fleet projection.


Figure 12: Residential consumption /inhabitant and GDP/inhabitant in purchasing-power parity , Brazilian values in 1996.

Participation of Energy Sources by Sector

Once the parameters of the previous section are defined, it is possible to project the equivalent energy for each sector from the assumed growth of the economy as a whole and the distribution of activities by sector. The results of this projection are shown in Figure 13.

In order to calculate the participation of the different energy sources, the historical behavior of this participation is analyzed. A comparison with the consumption structure of other countries can be an indication of future trends. As an example we will present the projection for the Industrial Sector. Figure 14 shows an aggregated projection of energy sources grouped by form and origin. 

 

Figure 14: Historical and projected participation of energy sources in the Industrial Sector in Brazil

In the above figure it can be observed: a) a large cutback in the participation of petroleum products as a consequence of the price crisis at the end of the eighties; b) the growth of electricity participation as a consequence of technological modernization; c) the increase of mineral coal participation and of its products due to the growing importance of the steel industry and some substitutions among fuel sources; d) the penetration of natural gas which contributed in the last decade to some move back of electricity participation.

The demand projection took into consideration the historical trends. A comparison between the consumption structure in Brazil and that of other countries, based on an adaptation of OECD data for equivalent energy has also contributed to the analysis. 

Figure 15 shows the participation of the energy sources grouped by countries, in a large spectrum of GDP/inhabitant. The countries are ordered by GDP/inhabitant. 

 

Figure 15: Participation of energy sources in use in the Industrial Sector in the different countries, ordered by GDP/inhab.

Some interesting facts should be pointed out: a) according to what has historically happened in Brazil, the biomass participation is reduced when the GDP/inhabitant grows; b) electricity increases its participation when we examine the richer countries and it reaches a 50% plateau which is the average value of OECD countries; c) there is a clear inter-penetration of natural gas and electricity (consumption of one or other fuel according to availability) and of these energy sources with petroleum products; d) the use of natural gas is a function of its availability. Since this availability in Brazil is much larger than the present use, it means that there is a large space for expansion of its use in industry; and e) the use of mineral coal and its products is a function of the industry that predominates and of its availability. Some energy balances account for the process heat resulting from co-generation. This form of energy is very important in Russia and, even though to a lesser degree, also in Poland.

The participation of energy sources products is projected using a similar process inside each group of energy source. Sometimes, specially in less complex sectors or when each industrial activity is examined separately, it is more convenient to work directly with the different energy sources and not with the aggregations shown in Figure 14. 

The projection result for final use in equivalent energy is shown in Figure 16 (participation in grouped values) and Figure 17 (absolute values by energy source). It should be mentioned that when we express energy in the form of equivalent energy we are making easier the study of other hypothesis concerning participation. 

 

Figure 16: Participation of energy sources in grouped form

 

Figure 17: Projection of final use by energy source, expressed in equivalent energy.

Projection in Final Energy and Preliminary Examination of Consistency of Data

The same coefficients used for converting final energy into equivalent energy for each sector can be used to generate the projection in final energy for each sector, once the participation of each sector is defined. We present for the grouped energy sources their growth in terms of final consumption and expressed in final energy. In Figure 18 and Table 2 it can be observed that for an accumulated economical growth of 88% between 1999 and 2020, the final energy would double. The same would happen with the use of petroleum and its products. The use of biomass would practically remain stable with a growth of only 7% in the whole period. The use of electricity would grow more than the GDP (1.3 of elasticity). A large growth (472%) of natural gas use is projected. 

Since it is also foreseen a raise of its use for electricity generation, it should be verified the real availability of natural gas. Preliminarily, we point out that the figures that we have calculated for 2010 (28 million of tep/year including thermal generation) are practically equivalent to the goal announced by Petrobrás, namely 8 million m3/day for that year.

 

Table 2: Final Consumption in Final Energy 1000 tEP/year, historical and projected

 

1970

1980

1990

1999

2010

2020

1999/200

Petroleum Products and NG

21333

47341

48163

72232

100055

145232

101%

Biomass

32754

33769

38111

40435

39372

43221

7%

Mineral Coal and Products

1633

4619

7666

9450

15013

17058

81%

Natural Gas

66

472

2143

4796

14294

27457

472%

Electricity 

11548

35278

62708

91262

138037

203376

123%

Total

67333

121481

158790

218175

306771

436343

100%

GDP(US$94 bi) 

173.3

396.5

491.7

606.1

822.1

1138.2

88%

Average Annual Growth Rates

 

1970/80

1980/90

1990/99

1999/2010

2010/20

1999/2020

Petroleum Products and NG

8.3%

0.2%

4.6%

3.0%

3.8%

3.4%

Biomass

0.3%

1.2%

0.7%

-0.2%

0.9%

0.3%

Mineral Coal and Products

11.0%

5.2%

2.4%

4.3%

1.3%

2.9%

Natural Gas

21.7%

16.3%

9.4%

10.4%

6.7%

8.7%

Electricity 

11.8%

5.9%

4.3%

3.8%

4.0%

3.9%

Total

6.1%

2.7%

3.6%

3.1%

3.6%

3.4%

GDP (US$94 bi) 

8.6%

2.2%

2.4%

2.8%

3.3%

3.0%

 

Figure 18: Use of  final energy

In Table 3 we present for the grouped energy sources the participation in final energy in final use and the growth of energy sources participation.

Table 3: Participation of Energy Sources in Final Energy

 

1970

1980

1990

1999

2010

2020

1970/99

1999/2020

Petroleum products and  NG

31.7%

39.0%

30.3%

33.1%

32.6%

33.3%

1.4%

0.2%

Biomass

48.6%

27.8%

24.0%

18.5%

12.8%

9.9%

-30.1%

-8.6%

Min. Coal and Products

2.4%

3.8%

4.8%

4.3%

4.9%

3.9%

1.9%

-0.4%

Natural Gas

0.1%

0.4%

1.3%

2.2%

4.7%

6.3%

2.1%

4.1%

Electricity

17.2%

29.0%

39.5%

41.8%

45.0%

46.6%

24.7%

4.8%

From the consolidation of the sectorial analysis that was carried out, the following results shown in Table 4 were obtained regarding the final energy projection for the selected years by energy source. The complete results are in an attached Excel spreadsheet.

Table 4: Final  Energy                         10^3 tEP

 

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

NATURAL GAS

5446

9362

14294

19728

27457

VAPOR COAL

353

1603

2262

2338

2256

MET. COAL

2132

1704

2001

2603

3225

FIREWOOD

13225

12447

11426

10321

9481

SUGARCANE PROD.

16479

16530

17975

19383

20834

OTHERS PRIMARY 

2663

2794

2994

3242

3437

 TOTAL PRIMARY

40298

44439

50952

57614

66690

 DIESEL OIL  

28996

32792

37569

43778

53373

FUEL OIL

10348

12233

14659

17588

22179

GASOLINE

16298

19725

23626

28212

35819

LPG

7691

8442

10598

13096

15632

NAPHTHA

4

6

8

18

38

KEROSENE

2981

3428

4086

4968

6281

GAS

1269

1813

2221

2396

2531

MIN. COAL COKE

5984

7512

8529

8932

9047

 ELECTRICITY

93401

110391

138037

166679

203376

 VEGETAL COAL

3954

4115

4277

4570

5108

ETHYL ALCOHOL

5753

5162

5694

6368

7797

 O.SEC. PETR.

6351

5530

6312

7239

8262

TAR

80

167

202

211

210

TOTAL SECONDARY

183112

211318

255819

304056

369653

Total Biomass

35810

35742

37357

38410

40368

TOTAL

223410

255757

306771

361670

436343

 The historical and projected values are shown in Figure19.

 

Figure 19: Historical and projected final energy use

   

Figure 20: Participation by source in final energy for Brazil, historical and projected values.

It is also important to analyze if the introduction of natural gas does not negatively change the refining structure. It is true that in an open market there can be exchange of products among countries. In the case of introduction of natural gas there has always been the concern with curbs on the fuel oil market. This concern was exacerbated by the refining unbalance (planned for maximizing gasoline) that existed in the petroleum sector. This occurred for gasoline after the second petroleum crisis when the market of this fuel underwent a double attack, namely the “dieselization” of the fleet and the introduction of hydrated alcohol, besides the mixing of anhydrous alcohol with gasoline. Figure 20 shows that there will be no problems relative to the refining structure the space of fuel oil is preserved and that of gasoline is amplified. Actually, there are indications that there would also be room for natural gas to be used in vehicles or for more alcohol. 

 

  Figure 21: Historical consumption structure (in tEP of final energy). The historical values seem to show that refining difficulties relative to the proposed consumption structure are not expected. The existing LPG deficit shall be maintained

Another interesting consistency test is how energy is distributed among the sectors since this is an alternative criterion for projection that we have used in other approaches. In Figure 21 we can observe the participation in final energy.

 
Figure 22: Participation of sectors in final energy.

The drop in the residential sector participation observed in Figure 22 can be due the shift from firewood, with low efficiency, to other more efficient energy sources. The increase in the participation of the commercial sector and others is due to the already mentioned energy intensity. 

Energy Emissions Matrix


[1] Gasoline (mixture of fuels containing anhydrous alcohol), hydrated alcohol or compressed natural gas.

[2] Converted American dollars of 1995 by the purchasing-power parity.  

 

Continued

Graphic Edition/Edição Gráfica:
MAK
Editoração Eletrônic
a

Revised/Revisado:
Friday, 13 May 2011
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