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Economy & Energy
No 29: December 2001- January 2002   ISSN 1518-2932

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e&e No 29

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Energy and Emissions Matrix

Energy and Emissions Matrix 
Preliminary Edition

The Macroeconomic Scenario

Energy Matrix 1970/2000

Energy Matrix  2000/2020

Energy Emissions Matrix 

Sectorial Emissions

Commercial, Public and Other Services 

Argentine Crisis:

Argentina has Weight 

An Alternative for Argentina

 

 

 

http://ecen.com

 

Energy and Emissions Matrix 
Preliminary Edition

Carlos Feu Alvim - Project coordinator
feu@ecen.com

We have the pleasure to present to our readers (finally):
The Energy Emissions Matrix and
The Energy Matrix, in a preliminary edition. 

Some members of the e&e staff have worked on the previous official editions of the Brazilian Energy Matrix. The definition of a future Energy Matrix is among the tasks assigned to the National Council for Energy Policy – CNPE.

Our staff has been invited by the Energy Secretariat of Ministry of Mines and Energy – MME, to elaborate a proposition of an Energy Matrix for the CNPE. Associated with this Energy Matrix, the Ministry of Science and Technology  - MCT, has ordered the development of the methodology that would calculate the corresponding emissions of gases that contribute to the greenhouse effect.  Then different hypothesis concerning the future supply of demands could be analyzed and compared from the point of view of emissions.

Changes that occurred in the Energy Secretariat in the last two years resulted in the discontinuation of our participation in the project. It also caused upset to the edition of the National Energy Balance that has been edited for 25 years and which is the base for our work. Due to the different commitments of the Energy Matrix (with the MME) and Emissions Matrix (with the MCT), we have decided to face the whole task since the Energy Matrix logically precedes the emissions linked to it. Some simplifications were inevitable but we have completed the necessary planning cycle that involves the economic, energy and emissions parts. 

In the elaboration of our previous work, within the Government, concerning the proposition of an Energy Matrix we felt (partially) frustrated in two aspects that we tried to avoid in the present elaboration:

  • The lack of an economic scenario, accepted by society, and free from being the expression of economic growth desires which, when not fulfilled, would make the  Matrix obsolete  even before it is completed.

  • The elaborated Energy Matrix resulted in a rigid demand that functioned neither as political orientation, as expected, nor even for feeding the demand supply debate.

In order to prevent these problems, we have designed our model so that it would satisfy three fundamental requirements:

  • Economic scenario strongly coupled with historical trends and whose changes are easily reflected in the energy demand and corresponding emissions.

  • The possibility of sketching a reference demand in what we call “equivalent energy” in such a way that it is possible to transfer the distribution among the different energy sources a posteriori the determination for each scenario and to be able, in a relatively simple form, to redistribute this demand among the different energy sources.

  • A plain methodology linked to parameters such as energy/product of easy understanding (and criticism).

During some years the elaboration of a new Energy Matrix, inside and outside the Government, was postponed due to a disproportionate confidence on the assumption that market forces would define it without government interference which everyone agreed to have been excessive in the past. 

Now that the crisis concerning electric energy demand satisfaction has demonstrated that the terms involved in energy undertakings are not subordinated to simple control based on the market and that petroleum prices (and that of dollars) undergo alterations that complicate decisions based on the market, one turns back to the Energy Matrix for orienting the planning in the Sector..

We should also consider (besides the economic reasons) the existence of problems related to the environment, such as the emissions that originate the greenhouse effect. Regarding this subject, only a fanatical neo-liberal could trust the future to the present market rules. Our methodology seems to be adequate to the new times since its vision of the future permits to define demand, leaving to free competition a large range of the market. On the other hand it can help to establish mechanisms – including those of the market – aiming at orienting the long term decisions. The objective of these measures would be to direct the energy investments so that the economic future of the country would not be endangered and to take into account the impact on global warming caused by energy consumption. The present work, as previously said, is only an initial vision of a reference scenario. It is an ambitious work, mainly when one considers the limitations found and the resources and time we had available. We are open to consider – and the methodology facilitates it – different economic scenarios and different demands satisfaction. We are also willing to consider founded criticism that should be presented and to incorporate contributions to our approach.  

Our initial idea was that the Matrix would evolve from an ample debate in the sectors that produce and use energy. With this purpose we have been publishing the partial results and we have received various comments on and encouragement to our work.

We want e&e to be the medium for the constructive debate about the subject. In the present issue we present a first analysis of our results carried out by the coordinator, until the present year, responsible for the elaboration of the National Energy Balance of the MME. The engineer Patusco – who is a member of the e&e editorial board – but who did not directly collaborated in the elaboration of the present work, makes important comments that we intend to take into account in future editions of the Matrix. 

Final Report : Executive Summary

Coordinator : Carlos Feu Alvim feu@ecen.com
Technical Staff :Carlos Feu Alvim, Aumara Feu, Eduardo Marques, Frida Eidelman, Omar Campos Ferreira, Othon Luiz Pinheiro da Silva

Graphic Edition/Edição Gráfica:
MAK
Editoração Eletrônic
a

Revised/Revisado:
Tuesday, 11 November 2008
.

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