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Economy & Energy
No 29: December 2001- January 2002   ISSN 1518-2932

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e&e No 29

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Energy and Emissions Matrix

Energy and Emissions Matrix 
Preliminary Edition

The Macroeconomic Scenario

Energy Matrix 1970/2000

Energy Matrix  2000/2020

Energy Emissions Matrix 

Sectorial Emissions

Commercial, Public and Other Services 

Argentine Crisis:

Argentina has Weight 

An Alternative for Argentina

 

 

Under Translation

http://ecen.com

 

Energy and Emission Matrix:

7. Commercial, Public and Other Services except Transport

Note of the Editor:
It concerns results relative to the projection of energy consumption in the Commercial, Public and Other Services and of the corresponding emissions. The numbering of figures and tables corresponds to that of the report delivered to the Ministry of Science and Technology and which will be integrally available to the e&e readers. 
COMPLETE TEXT OF THE SECTORS STUDIED AVAILABLE IN WORD FOR DOWNLOAD (only in Portuguese)

Coordinator : Carlos Feu Alvim  feu@ecen.com
Technical staff: Carlos Feu Alvim, Aumara Feu (*), Eduardo Marques, Frida Eidelman, Omar Campos Ferreira, Othon Luiz Pinheiro da Silva

The Service Sector has been growing in importance in what regards its participation in the GDP and it even corresponds to 2/3 of the GDP in some countries. From the point of view of energy consumption its importance is relatively small except transport which has a special treatment in our methodology. Approximately, transport represents about 5% of the Product and 30% of energy. From the point of view of product calculation, many countries do not consider transport as a separate item.

a) Participation of the Commercial and Public Sectors in the GDP

As we have previously observed, the participation of the Services Sector in the GDP has grown in the last decades and, compared with other countries, there is still room for growth of the Services Sector and of the activities not directly related to transport that are object of this item. In Figure 46 we can observe the historical and projected of the Commercial and Public activities where are included, according to the Energy Balance, all the other activities related to the Sector not referring to transport.

 

Figure 46: Participation of Other Services except transport in the GDP (Commercial and Public in BEN/MME) historical and projected in current and constant values.

 

The participation value, projected at constant prices, is 56,5% (52,1% at current prices) for “Commercial and Public”.

b) Equivalent Energy / Product Ratio  of the Sector

The product value of the “Commercial and Public” activities was obtained from the Services Sector discounting whenever available the participation of the transport activity or, when it was missing, the average of 4.8% corresponding to OECD’s average value. The dispersion of the energy/product ratio observed among the countries is much larger than the error made when evaluating the product. The values consider the product corresponding to the purchase power parity in each country.

 

Figure 47: Equivalent Energy / Product corresponding to Commerce and Public activities (Services excluding transport) in OECD countries and Brazil. Values relative to OECD’s average value in 1995

However, OECD’s average is higher than the value observed for Brazil. The Brazilian historical values are shown in Figure 48. Also in Figure 48 the evolution of the equivalent energy/product ratio extrapolated to 2020 is shown. Consumption by product would reach OECD level in 1995 in the last year.

Figure 48: Energy/Product ratio for Commercial and Public activities, historical and extrapolated values considering  consumption level close to that of OECD countries in 1995 and for Brazil in 2020.

 

c) Projection of Equivalent Energy for the “Commercial and Public” Activities

Based on the projected GDP and on the participation of these activities we can project their aggregated product. From the equivalent energy/product ratio one can project the equivalent energy demand value using the product value. The historical and extrapolated values for the product aggregated in the “Commercial and Public” activities are shown in Figure 49. The values were shown in Table 6 for the main sectors. According to the projected  energy/product value the energy growth shall rise above that of the product as can be verified in Figure 49.

 

Figure 49: Historical and projected Equivalent Energy and Product for the “Commercial and Public” activities

 

d) Participation of Energy Sources in the Commercial and Public Activities in Equivalent Energy


Figure 50: Energy distribution in the Commercial and Public activities in several countries in 1995.

In Figure 50 we can observe that electrical energy predominates in these activities in the half-developed and more advanced countries. In Brazil it is much higher than the average of the countries shown or of the OECD countries which is slightly more than 70%.

In Figure 51we show the evolution of participation of the different energy forms (grouped) in the examined activities. We can observe that from the 1973 and 1979 petroleum crises on, electrical energy, which was predominant, became almost the total consumption in the Sector.

 

Figure 51: Participation of energy forms (grouped) in equivalent energy, both historical and projected values

Figure 52 shows in more details the participation of other types of energy (other than the electrical one) in the commercial activity and in others.

 

Figure 52: Participation of energy sources in the commercial and public activities. The drop in the participation of energy sources other than the electrical energy happened from the 1973 petroleum shock on until the “cold shock” in the petroleum prices in 1986. In the projection it was assumed an increase in the participation of natural gas.

It can be observed that the participation of other energy sources was never at the levels observed in most of the countries since 1970. It should be remembered that countries with temperate climates use other energy sources for commercial and public heating. This can be a limit for the contribution of other energy sources to the sector. It should be remembered that natural gas, whenever available, tends to shift other sources, even electricity. The natural gas participation until 1999 was minimal and should increase in the next years. This is the adopted hypothesis and it is shown in Figure 52.

e) Participation of Energy Sources in Final Energy

The participation in final energy can be obtained from the transformation coefficients adequate for the sector. In Figure 53 and Table 26 the projected values for final energy in the commercial and public activities are indicated.

 

Figure 53: Final Energy consumption in the commercial and public activities, both historical and projected values as indicated.

Table 26: Projected Final Energy values for the Commercial and Public Sectors (10^6 tEP)

 

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

NATURAL GAS

78

282

671

1133

1837

FIREWOOD

85

104

94

87

111

TOTAL PRIMARY

163

386

765

1220

1948

DIESEL OIL  

312

229

260

369

582

FUEL OIL

566

679

830

1006

1239

LPG

481

588

771

1086

1593

NAPHTHA

26

53

60

53

46

GAS

21195

27223

33749

39308

46360

ELECTRICITY

61

77

74

72

92

VEGETAL COAL

0

4

5

4

0

O.SEC. PETR.

22642

28852

35749

41897

49911

TAR

85

104

94

87

111

TOTAL SECONDARY

22805

29238

36514

43117

51859

Total Biomass

78

282

671

1133

1837

TOTAL

85

104

94

87

111

 

f) Emissions Corresponding to Consumption in Final Energy

From the final energy consumption and the emission coefficients for the Sector, the final emissions can be calculated. In the present evaluation the emission coefficients used were those supplied by the team that is elaborating the National Inventory of Emissions (values supplied by Branca Americano to the e&e staff). The factors used in the extrapolation, shown in Table 27, correspond to those supplied for 1999.

 It should be observed that only the emission coefficients for energy sources that were projected for use in the Sector for the period 2000/2020 are shown.

 Table 27: Emission Coefficients in the Commercial Sector and  Others CO2 Gg/10^3tEP remaining ones t/10^3tEP

 

CO2

CO

CH4

NOX

N2O

NMVOCS

NATURAL GAS

2.272

1.880

0.047

23.522

0.049

0.203

FIREWOOD 

4.097

16.748

10.341

4.718

0.175

25.774

SUGARCANE PROD.

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

OTHERS PRIMARY 

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

 DIESEL OIL  

3.150

0.914

0.180

5.265

0.022

0.215

FUEL OIL 

3.290

0.793

0.059

8.131

0.014

0.215

LPG 

2.682

0.431

0.050

2.037

0.004

0.215

GAS 

2.272

0.726

0.201

1.751

0.006

0.203

 ELECTRICITY 

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

  VEGETAL COAL

4.458

300.696

8.591

4.296

0.043

4.296

 Source: MCT: Communicated by Branca Americano to e&e

Application of these coefficients to the final energy data results in the emission values shown in graphics for each of the gases that are considered to contribute to the greenhouse effect. The results for CO2, CO, CH4, NOx, N2O and NMVOCs are shown in Figures 54 to 59 and in Tables 28 to 33.

 

Figure 54: Historical and projected emissions in the commercial activities and other services from the use of final energy by energy source. In the case of CO2 (and CO) emissions corresponding to the use of renewable biomass do not alter the long term inventory and do not contribute to the greenhouse effect. These values are indicated in “punched” form in the figure.

Table 28: CO2 emissions in Gg/year

 

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

 

NATURAL GAS

178.1

640.1

1524.1

2573.0

4173.1

 

FIREWOOD

346.4

426.4

384.3

358.2

452.9

*

TOTAL PRIMARY

524.5

1066.4

1908.4

2931.2

4626.0

 

DIESEL OIL

983.7

721.2

820.1

1163.5

1833.7

 

FUEL OIL 

1863.3

2232.5

2730.0

3309.2

4075.4

 

LPG 

1291.2

1576.3

2068.9

2912.2

4271.3

 

GAS 

58.4

120.3

135.9

121.1

104.4

 

 ELECTRICITY 

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

 

  VEGETAL COAL

271.5

344.1

331.7

320.4

409.7

*

O.SEC. PETR. 

0.6

11.9

15.1

11.5

0.0

 

TOTAL SECONDARY 

4468.7

5006.2

6101.7

7837.9

10694.5

 

Total without Biomass 

4646.8

5646.3

7625.8

10410.9

14867.6

 

TOTAL

4993.2

6072.7

8010.0

10769.1

15320.5

 

(*) Non-accountable emissions because they are from renewable biomass

 

Figure 55: Historical and projected emissions in the commercial activities and other services (non transport) from the use of final energy by energy source in these activities. As in the case of CO2, the CO emissions from biomass are not accounted for the greenhouse effect

Table 29: CO emissions in Gg/year

 

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

 

NATURAL GAS

0.00

0.01

0.03

0.05

0.09

 

FIREWOOD

0.87

1.08

0.97

0.90

1.14

*

TOTAL PRIMARY 

0.88

1.09

1.00

0.96

1.23

 

DIESEL OIL

0.06

0.04

0.05

0.07

0.10

 

FUEL OIL 

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

 

LPG 

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.08

 

GAS 

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

 

 ELECTRICITY 

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

 

VEGETAL COAL

0.52

0.66

0.64

0.62

0.79

*

O.SEC. PETR. 

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

 

TOTAL SECONDARY 

0.64

0.78

0.79

0.81

1.06

 

Total without Biomass 

0.65

0.80

0.82

0.86

1.14

 

TOTAL

1.52

1.87

1.79

1.77

2.29

 

(*)Non-accountable emissions because they are from renewable biomass

 

Figure 55: Historical and projected emissions in the commercial activities and other services (non transport) from the use of final energy by energy source in these activities.

 Table 30: CH4  Emissions in Gg/year

 

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

NATURAL GAS

0.00

0.01

0.03

0.05

0.09

FIREWOOD

0.87

1.08

0.97

0.90

1.14

TOTAL PRIMARY

0.88

1.09

1.00

0.96

1.23

DIESEL OIL

0.06

0.04

0.05

0.07

0.10

FUEL OIL 

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

LPG 

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.08

GAS 

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

 ELECTRICITY 

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

  VEGETAL COAL

0.52

0.66

0.64

0.62

0.79

O.SEC. PETR. 

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

TOTAL SECONDARY 

0.64

0.78

0.79

0.81

1.06

Total without Biomass

0.65

0.80

0.82

0.86

1.14

TOTAL

1.52

1.87

1.79

1.77

2.29

 

Figure 56: Historical and projected emissions in the commercial activities and other services (non transport) from the use of final energy by energy source in these activities.

 

Table 31: NOx Emissions in Gg/year

 

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

NATURAL GAS

1.84

6.63

15.78

26.64

43.21

FIREWOOD

0.40

0.49

0.44

0.41

0.52

TOTAL PRIMARY 

2.24

7.12

16.22

27.06

43.73

DIESEL OIL

1.64

1.21

1.37

1.94

3.07

FUEL OIL

4.60

5.52

6.75

8.18

10.07

LPG 

0.98

1.20

1.57

2.21

3.24

GAS 

0.05

0.09

0.10

0.09

0.08

 ELECTRICITY 

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

  VEGETAL OIL

0.26

0.33

0.32

0.31

0.39

O.SEC. PETR. 

0.00

0.03

0.04

0.03

0.00

TOTAL SECONDARY 

7.54

8.37

10.15

12.76

16.86

TOTAL

9.78

15.49

26.37

39.82

60.59

 

Figure 57: Historical and projected emissions in the commercial activities and other services (non transport) from the use of final energy by energy source in these activities.

Table 32: N2O Emissions in Gg/year

 

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

NATURAL GAS

0.0038

0.0138

0.0328

0.0553

0.0897

FIREWOOD

0.0148

0.0182

0.0164

0.0153

0.0193

TOTAL PRIMARY 

0.0186

0.0319

0.0491

0.0706

0.1090

DIESEL OIL

0.0068

0.0050

0.0057

0.0081

0.0127

FUEL OIL

0.0077

0.0092

0.0113

0.0137

0.0168

LPG 

0.0021

0.0025

0.0033

0.0047

0.0068

GAS 

0.0001

0.0003

0.0003

0.0003

0.0003

 ELECTRICITY 

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

VEGETAL COAL

0.0026

0.0033

0.0032

0.0031

0.0039

O.SEC. PETR. 

0.0000

0.0000

0.0001

0.0000

0.0000

TOTAL SECONDARY 

0.0194

0.0204

0.0239

0.0298

0.0406

TOTAL

0.0379

0.0523

0.0730

0.1004

0.1496

 

Figure 55: Historical and projected emissions in the commercial activities and other services (non transport) from the use of final energy by energy source in these activities.

Table 33: NMOVCs emissions Gg/year

 

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

NATURAL GAS

0.02

0.06

0.14

0.23

0.37

FIREWOOD

2.18

2.68

2.42

2.25

2.85

TOTAL PRIMARY 

2.20

2.74

2.55

2.48

3.22

DIESEL OIL

0.07

0.05

0.06

0.08

0.13

FUEL OIL

0.12

0.15

0.18

0.22

0.27

LPG 

0.10

0.13

0.17

0.23

0.34

GAS

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

 ELECTRICITY 

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

VEGETAL COAL

0.26

0.33

0.32

0.31

0.39

O.SEC. PETR. 

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

TOTAL SECONDARY

0.56

0.66

0.73

0.85

1.14

Total without Biomass 

0.57

0.72

0.87

1.08

1.51

TOTAL

2.75

3.40

3.29

3.33

4.36

(*) The economic analysis part of the present work constitutes the Ph D thesis of Aumara Feu at the Economy Department of Brasilia University

Graphic Edition/Edição Gráfica:
MAK
Editoração Eletrônic
a

Revised/Revisado:
Tuesday, 11 November 2008
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