Energy and Emissions Matrix:
Energy and Emissions in the Industrial Sector
Note of the Editor:
In the present chapter we will study the evolution of the energy/product coefficients and the consumption distribution in equivalent energy among the different final energy sources aiming at the projection of consumption of final energy (using coefficients that reflect the relative efficiency of the energy sources) for the Industrial Sector.
This approach is also possible for each one of the industrial activities and shall be carried out in works referring to the energy matrix.
The use of emission coefficients relative to the different sources of final energy for the sector permits to obtain the emission of gases that contribute to the greenhouse effect originating from the energy use by the sector.
a) Participation of the Industrial Sector in the GDP
The historical participation of the sectors in the GDP was discussed in item 4 where Brazilian historical data and those relative to the OECD countries at current and constant prices were presented.
It was verified in the OECD countries that the decline of the sector participation at current prices was much higher than at constant prices. In the case of Brazil, the participation of the Industrial Sector dropped both at current and constant prices relative to the eighties as shown in Figure 29.
Figure 29: Historical and projected values of the participation in the GDP of the industrial + energy sectors at constant and current prices for Brazil. When international comparisons are made, one should compare the sum of the two sectors with the industry participation in the GDP of the other countries.
Considering the decline of the industrial sector participation in the eighties and nineties of last century and taking into account the fact that Brazil did not become an industrialized country in the full sense of this expression , we prefer to maintain the participation of the industrial and energy sectors approximately in the same proportion observed in the last years of the available series. The average participation of the industrial product in the GDP in OECD was about 30% in 1995. It should be noticed that countries like Japan and Germany still maintain the participation around 35% and that the OECD average is strongly influenced by the low participation of the United States that maintains for several years an external commercial deficit mainly constituted of industrial products.
The projected values of the industrial and energy sectors participation for Brazil were 28,0%and 32% respectively, totaling 32,5% and the ratio between the participation at current and constant prices was assumed in both cases to tend to 1. In Figure 30 we show the assumed evolution for the industrial and energy sectors at constant prices.
Figure 30: Historical and projected values of the equivalent energy/product for the Industrial Sector in Brazil. It should be noticed the regularity and constancy of this ratio at constant prices.
b) Equivalent Energy / Product Ratio of the Industrial Sector
The equivalent energy/product ratio of the industrial sector shows a systematic increase at current or constant prices as can be seen in Figure 31. Apparently, these values would be tending to a limit value. The projected values would stabilize at 0.42 kEP/US$94. A preliminary analysis of the data concerning the different industrial activities shows that the increase of the energy/product ratio was fundamentally due to the metallurgy sector.
Figure 31: Equivalent Energy/Industrial Product in different countries ordered according to the GDP per capita (ppp – purchase power parity). There is a large variation in the observed values that strongly depend on the industrial activities of each country. The blue line in the graphic represents the industrial product per capita).
It is interesting to examine the Brazilian industry situation relative to other countries. In Figure 32 the equivalent energy/product ratio for different countries is shown. Besides the countries of the present and former communist block, the countries that stand out regarding their mining and metallurgy activities present higher equivalent energy/product ratio.
There is a large dispersion of values and Brazil had an equivalent energy/product ratio value practically equal to that of OECD in 1995. The adopted hypothesis, namely that the present energy intensity remains constant seems coherent with this observation. A better evaluation depends on a prospective analysis of the different industrial activities in Brazil.
Figure 32: Evaluation of the equivalent energy/product parameter in the industrial sector.
c) Projection of the Equivalent and Final Energy for the Industrial Sector
The methodology for evaluating the participation in the GDP of the sectors at constant prices was previously described when the Agriculture and Husbandry Sector was discussed. The projected participation of the Industrial Sector is shown in Figure 32. The participation data regarding the intermediate years were shown in Table 5.
From the GDP (in dollar values equivalent to that of 1994) it is possible to obtain the values for the corresponding Sectorial Products which were shown in Table 6. Multiplying the so-projected values of the Industrial Product by the annual values of the equivalent energy/industrial product parameter we obtain the equivalent energy demand.
EE industry (year i) = Industrial Prod. (year i) * (EE/PI) (year i)
Figure 33 shows the evolution of the product values at constant prices and that of the equivalent energy in the Industrial Sector. The historical values reflect the increase of the energy/product ratio shown in Figure 32 which causes the differentiation of the curves, mainly after 1980 when industrial production turned to semi-finished products.
Figure 33: Historical and projected evolution of the economic activity (measured by the equivalent energy demand) and of the product for the Industrial Sector.
d) Participation of Energy Sources in Industry in Equivalent Energy
The participation of energy sources in industry was carried out in two steps. The first approximation is made by considering the energy sources grouped just like it is made in the presentation of OCDE’s Energy Balances. This classification is applied so that petroleum products, natural gas and coal are grouped together in order to keep in mind the origin of the energy source. This facilitates the planning of demand satisfaction as a function of availability. In a second step, it was considered the percent participation of the energy sources in each sub-group
The adopted methodology makes it possible to review the participation among the energy sources so that a study regarding substitution among energy sources from other groups is possible.
In Figure 34 , we shows the evolution of energy sources participation grouped in that way, both the historical and the projected ones. When we projected this participation we have also considered the comparison of energy sources participation in Brazil with those of other countries.
In Table 16 we show the participation of the grouped energy sources obtained from OECD data in final energy converted to equivalent energy according to the methodology previously described [F1]. Since BEN does not consider separately energy in the form of heat, the total was re-normalized by distributing its value among the other energy sources (except electricity) as shown in Table 17, where the participation adopted for year 2020 in Brazil are indicated.
Table 16: Participation in Equivalent Energy of energy sources used in Industry in 1996.
Source: Final Energy Data of Balances published by OECD and converted to equivalent energy by e&e
Table 17: Re-normalization of data in Table 16 (without heat) and projected participation for Brazil
Figure 34: Historical and projected participation of energy sources in the Industrial Sector in Brazil
In Figure 35 we show the participation of the energy sources in industry for several countries ordered by GDP/inhabitant. As expected, the electric energy participation grows with development and reaches a plateau at about 50%. The biomass participation is reduced according to development. The natural gas participation in industry is well above than that observed in Brazil, demonstrating that it would exist space for a larger participation of this energy source, whose application will depend on future availability.
However, mineral coal participation is practically twice than the OECD average. This reflects the weight iron and steel works have on our industrial matrix. For the future it was supposed in this first approximation, where we are dealing with the industrial sector as a whole, that the participation of mineral coal and its products would drop from its present 13% (in 1999) to 12% (in 2020). In the intermediate years we have considered an increase in the participation of mineral coal and its product due to the need of increasing exports in the next years.
Figure 35: Participation of energy sources presently used in the Industrial Sector in the different countries ordered by GDP/inhabitant.
In Table 18 we indicate the participation in past and intermediate years until 2020.
Table 18: Values of the Participation of aggregated energy sources and projected values
Figure 36: Historical and projected participation of energy sources used in the Industrial Sector.
For the purpose of defining the participation of the different energy sources by group, the percent variation of their components was used. Figures 37 to 39 show the evolution and projection of the energy sources along the studied years.
Figure 37: Participation of Biomass and its components in industrial consumption (in equivalent energy).
Figure 38: Participation of Petroleum products (and NG) in industrial consumption (in equivalent energy) and participation of each energy source in the group.
Figure 39: Participation of Mineral Coal and its products in industrial consumption (in equivalent energy) and participation of each energy source in the group.
d) Participation of Energy Sources in Final Energy
The equivalent energy values were converted to final energy, as was done for the other sectors, using equivalence coefficients already previously described ( based on efficiency values of the expected future uses, according to indications of BEU/MME 1993).
Based on these equivalence coefficients, the final energy consumption in the Industrial Sector by energy source was obtained as shown in Figure 40 and Table 19. The Product values used were those of Table 6.
Figure 40: Final Energy consumption in the Industrial Sector with historical and projected values indicated
Table 19: Projected Values of Final Energy for the Industrial Sector (10^6 toe)
Final Energy 10^3 toe
e) Emissions Corresponding to Consumption in Final Energy
From the consumption in final energy and the emission coefficients for the Sector one can deduce the final emissions. In the present evaluation it was used the values supplied by the staff that is elaborating the National Inventory of Emissions (values supplied by Branca Americano to e&e staff). As a first approximation, constant values were used along the period 2000/2020. The factors used, shown in Table 21, correspond to those of 1999.
It should be observed that only the emission coefficients for energy sources that were projected to be used in the Sector in the period 2000/2020 are shown. The non-energy uses were not calculated in the emissions evaluation.
Table 20: Emission Coefficients in the Industrial Sector
CO2 Gg/10^3tEP , the others t/10^3tEP
Source: MCT: Communicated by Branca Americano to e&e
The application of these coefficients to the final energy data produces the emission values indicated in the graphic of each gas that contribute to the greenhouse effect. The results for CO2, CO, CH4, NOx, N2O and NMVOCs are shown in Figures 41 to 46 and Tables 21 to 26.
Figure 41: Historical and Projected CO2 Emissions in the Industrial Sector, originating from the final use of energy by energy source. In the case of CO2 emissions (and CO, see next Figure), the values corresponding to renewable biomass do not change the inventory along the period and do not contribute to the greenhouse effect. These values are indicated as “punched” in the Figure.
Table 21: CO2 Emissions in Gg/year
(*) Non-accountable Emissions due to the renewable biomass origin
Figure 42: Historical and Projected Emissions in the Industrial Sector originating from final use of energy by energy source.
Table 22: CO Emissions in Gg/year
(*)Non-accountable Emissions due to the renewable biomass origin
Figure 43: Historical and Projected Emissions in Industrial Sector originating from final use of energy by energy source.
It is predominant the emissions due to the use of biomass
Table 23: CH4 Emissions in Gg/year
Figure 44: Historical and Projected Emissions in Industrial Sector originating from final use of energy by energy source. It is highlighted the Natural Gas contribution in this type of emission.
Table 24 : NOx Emissions in Gg/year
Figure 45: Historical and Projected Emissions in Industrial Sector originating from final use of energy by energy source.
Table 26: N2O Emissions in Gg/year
Figure 46: Historical and Projected Emissions of other non volatile carbon compounds (non methane) originating from final use of energy by energy source.
Table 25: NMVOCs Emissions in Gg/year
(*) Part of the sectorial data analysis constitutes the Ph D thesis of Aumara Feu at the Economy Department of Brasilia University
 It should be noticed that the “Industrialized Country” expression was used at least at the end of the eighties as synonym of developed country and the Brazilian industry is still want of production and/or technology capacity in different vital sectors of industry.
[F1] Colocar referência da e&e
Graphic Edition/Edição Gráfica:
Tuesday, 11 November 2008.