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Economy & Energy
No 28 - October - November 2001   ISSN 1518-2932

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Energy and Emissions Matrix:

Agriculture and Husbandry Sector

Capital/Product Ratio in Brazil and in OECD Countries

Industrial Sector 

Under Translation

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Energy and Emission Matrix:

5. Use of results in the Agriculture and Husbandry Sector 

Note of the Editor:
It concerns results relative to the projection of energy consumption in the Agriculture and Husbandry Sector and of the corresponding emissions. The numbering of figures and tables corresponds to that of the report delivered to the Ministry of Science and Technology and which will be integrally available to the e&e readers. 

Coordinator : Carlos Feu Alvim
feu@ecen.com
Matrix Team: Carlos Feu Alvim, Aumara Feu
(*), Eduardo Marques, Frida Eidelman, Omar Campos Ferreira, Othon Luiz Pinheiro da Silva

Our methodology uses the equivalent energy evaluation in each sector starting from the evolution of the energy/product coefficient. The distribution of the equivalent energy consumption among the different energy sources of final energy permits the projection of the final energy consumption (using the coefficients that reflect the relative efficiency of the energy sources) for each sector.

The use of emission coefficients relative to the different sources of final energy and the hypothesis of primary sources distribution and of efficiency in the transformation process (mainly electricity generation) permits to obtain the emission coefficients by sector.

 a) Sectorial Equivalent Energy/ Product Ratio

In Figure 15 the Sectorial Equivalent Energy/Product ratio of the main sectors that consume energy are given. The values are presented in kilo petroleum equivalent kEP. The reason why we use the same unit normally used to express the equivalent energy is because we don’t want to introduce a new unit as previously explained. In this case it should be understood that 1kEP = 10.8 Mcal approximately corresponds to 1.167 m3 of dry natural gas (BEN/MME equivalence) at a temperature of 20 0C and a pressure of 1 atmosphere. 

In Figure 15 we also present the values corresponding to the use of equivalent energy extrapolated for the sector. The projection is based on a value estimated for 2020 and is made through a second degree curve fitted to the historical behavior and the projected value is coupled to the last known data by a Poisson integrated curve. The time constant of the Poisson curve can be chosen by the scenario builder. It is possible to interfere in the intermediate years, as it will be shown in the annex to the present work.

The convenience of working with constant prices becomes evident in Figures 16 and 17 where values at current prices and at constant prices are compared.[1].

 

 
Figure 15: Values of the equivalent energy /product ratio (constant prices) for the main sectors of demand.

 
Figure 16: Historical and projected values for the sectorial equivalent energy/product ratio (at constant prices) for Brazil

 
 Figure 17: Historical and projected values of equivalent energy/ product for the Agriculture and Husbandry Sector in Brazil at current and constant prices. It is noticed the regularity and constancy of this ratio at constant prices

The equivalent energy/product ratio of the agriculture and husbandry sector is notably “well behaved” at constant prices. This value, in spite of the deep changes that occurred in the technology and in the participation of energy sources, is practically constant along the 30 years of the series. The value at current prices does not show the same regularity in its behavior but, as we have already pointed out before, it is fundamentally due to the prices variation of the agriculture and husbandry products as compared to the remaining products that compose the GDP.

Since the participation of the Agriculture and Husbandry Sector is supposed to be declining at current prices (based on the most advanced countries and Brazilian states) and the equivalent energy consumption is increasing in the sector, .the equivalent energy/product ratio is ascending at current prices.

b) Projection of the Equivalent and Final Energy for the Agriculture and Husbandry Sector

From the participation of sectors (at constant prices) in the GDP and the GDP value supplied (also at constant prices) by the macroeconomic module [M1] it is possible to obtain the product of the sector (% participation x GDP in US$ 94) projected for each year. 

Figure 18 shows the values of product evolution and of equivalent energy at constant prices. The historical values reflect an elevation of the equivalent energy/product curve plateau, shown in Figure 16, from 1986 on.   
Figure 18: Historical evolution and projection of the economic activity and of the product for the Agriculture and Husbandry Sector.

 c) Energy Sources Participation in Equivalent Energy

The participation of energy sources in Agriculture, as already mentioned, was very significant in the last 30 years. In Figure 19 we show the historical evolution of this participation, expressed in equivalent energy. 

For projections purposes, one should distinguish those energy sources used [M2] for heat generation (firewood, fuel oil, LPG and eventually natural gas) from those used for driving force (fundamentally diesel). Electricity is used for: generation of stationary driving force (where it tends to predominate), heat generation (depending on price and availability of clean energy) and illumination, where it is unbeatable, whenever it is available. 

The use equivalent energy evaluation data in other countries for the agriculture and husbandry sector can help in the task of projecting the energy distribution in the sector for 2020. Data relative to developed countries can be specially useful. However, it should be taken into account the size of the countries used for comparison since that fact conditions the production methods. We take from the energy balances the base data used for obtaining the final energy participation. The year chosen was 1996, for which we have non-aggregated data for the OECD countries. Economic data for macro-sectors are available in other sources, particularly in the annual reports of the World Bank.

 

 
Figure 19: Historical participation of energy sources in the Agriculture and Husbandry for Brazil

The comparison of energy data of different countries published by OECD and converted to equivalent energy presents some problems in what concerns our choice for the future. The criteria for allocation to the Agriculture and Husbandry Sector should be substantially different.

In Figure 20 the participation of the different energy sources for 1995 clearly show discrepancies in the criteria for electricity allocation whose use is zero in countries like the USA and Belgium. For petroleum products there are also substantial differences concerning participation which must indicate substantially different allocation criteria. 

In Figure 21 it is shown the extrapolation of the participation considered for the sector in this first initial “run”, where electricity reaches about 30% at the end of the period. It is assumed a reduction in biomass application and an increase of petroleum products, dominantly diesel for the next years. In order to evaluate the trend, it was used a list (shown in Table 7) supplied for each sector by the program utilized where are presented: a) the graphic; b) the historical participation in selected years and c) the minimum, maximum and average participation of each energy source, grouped by primary and origin energy (except electricity). 

 

 
Figure 20: Participation of used energy sources in the Agriculture and Husbandry Sector. The allocations in the different countries do not follow the same criterion which in some cases makes the participation of electricity and petroleum products equal to zero.

 

Figure 21: Projection of the participation of energy sources in the Agriculture and Husbandry Sector, historical data  and extrapolation

 

Table 7: Indicative and aggregated values for projection

 

Average

Largest
Value 

Smallest
Value 

1970

1980

1999

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

 Electricity

14.2%

27.5%

2.1%

2.1%

8.5%

27.5%

27.5%

27.8%

28.7%

30.0%

30.7%

Petroleum products  or NG

53.1%

65.0%

15.9%

15.9%

57.5%

62.8%

63.2%

64.2%

64.3%

65.0%

65.2%

 Biomass e Renewable sources

32.7%

82.0%

9.4%

82.0%

34.0%

9.6%

9.4%

8.0%

7.0%

5.1%

4.1%

Mineral Coal and Products

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

 

d) Participation of Energy Sources in Final Energy

The values in equivalent energy were converted to final energy using equivalence coefficients, based on efficiency values of the expected uses for the future, from the Useful Energy Balance of the Ministry of Mines and Energy of 1993. 

Based on these equivalence coefficients, the final energy consumption by energy source in the Agriculture and Husbandry Sector were obtained and they are shown in Figure 22 and Table 8.

 

Figure 22: Final Energy Consumption in the Agriculture and Husbandry Sector with indication of historical and projected values

 

Table 8: Projected values of Final Energy for the Agriculture and Husbandry Sector (10^6 toe)

 

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

FIREWOOD

1721

1542

1498

1240

1174

TOTAL PRIMARY 

1721

1542

1498

1240

1174

DIESEL OIL

4765

5089

5649

6595

7811

FUEL OIL 

87

75

88

124

185

LPG

13

8

9

13

18

NAPHTHA

0

0

0

0

0

KEROSENE

0

3

7

11

17

ELECTRICITY

3728

3946

4526

5479

6644

CHARCOAL

5

6

10

19

35

TOTAL SECONDARY

8599

9127

10289

12241

14710

Total Biomass

1721

1542

1498

1240

1174

TOTAL

10320

10669

11787

13480

15885

 

e) Emissions Corresponding to Consumption in Final Energy

Once the consumption projection in final energy is obtained, the final emissions can be obtained from the emission coefficients for the Sector. Emissions between 1990  and 1999 have been preliminarily evaluated by the team that is elaborating the National Inventory of Emissions (supplied by Branca Americano to the e&e staff). In the case of the Agriculture and Husbandry Sector, constant factors were considered along the period. The same factors were used for the years that followed and they are shown in Table 9 .

It should be mentioned that only the emission coefficients for energy sources used in the Sector are shown and that in the present version we have not varied the set of energy sources to be used in the sector. In case of hypothesis that include other energy sources we should use default coefficients of the methodology adopted in Brazil (that of IPCC) for emissions evaluation.

Table 9: Emission Coefficients in the Agriculture and Husbandry Sector CO2 Gg/10^3tEP

 

FIREWOOD 

  DIESEL OIL

LPG

KEROSENE

  CHARCOAL

CO2

4.09724

3.149833305

2.68203628

3.056274

4.457586

CO

0.003488

0.000227799

0.002018959

0.004296

0.004296

CH4

0.005285

0.000425648

4.72522E-05

0.00043

0.008591

NOX

0.003488

0.000227799

0.002018959

0.004296

0.004296

N2O

0.000178

2.57396E-05

4.29566E-06

2.58E-05

4.3E-05

NMVOCs

0.025774

0.000214783

0.000214783

0.000215

0.004296

 Source: MCT (Data used for emissions between 1990 and 1999)

The application of these coefficients to the final energy data supplies the emission values indicated in the graphics for each gas considered as originating part of the greenhouse effect. The results for CO2, CO, CH4, NOx, N2O and NMVOCs (non-methane volatile organic compounds) are shown in Figures 23 to 28 and in Tables 8 to 14.

 

Figure 23: Historical and Projected Emissions of CO2 in the  Agriculture and Husbandry Sector, from the final use of energy by energy source.

 

Table 10: Emissions of CO2 in Gg/year

 

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

 

FIREWOOD 

7053

6319

6138

5079

4812

*

 TOTAL PRIMARY

7053

6319

6138

5079

4812

 

 DIESEL OIL

15010

16028

17793

20773

24602

 

FUEL OIL

285

246

289

408

607

 

LPG

36

22

24

34

49

 

NAPHTHA

0

0

0

0

0

 

KEROSENE 

0

0

0

0

0

 

ELECTRICITY 

0

0

0

0

0

 

CHARCOAL

23

26

45

85

156

*

TOTAL SECONDARY

15354

16323

18152

21300

25415

 

Total Without Biomass 

15354

16323

18152

21300

25415

 

TOTAL

22407

22642

24290

26378

30227

 

 (*) Non accountable emissions because they come from renewable biomass

 

 

Figure 24: Historical and Projected Emissions of CO in the Agriculture and Husbandry Sector, from the final use of energy by energy source.

 

Table 11: Emissions of CO in Gg/year

 

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

FIREWOOD

416.21

372.93

362.24

299.71

283.97

TOTAL PRIMARY 

416.21

372.93

362.24

299.71

283.97

DIESEL OIL

0.19

0.20

0.23

0.26

0.31

FUEL OIL

0.10

0.09

0.10

0.15

0.22

LPG

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.01

0.01

NAPHTHA

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

KEROSENE

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

ELECTRICITY

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

CHARCOAL

1.58

1.78

3.06

5.74

10.53

TOTAL SECONDARY

1.88

2.08

3.40

6.16

11.07

Total Without Biomass

1.88

2.08

3.40

6.16

11.07

TOTAL

418.09

375.00

365.64

305.86

295.04

(*)Non accountable emissions because they come from renewable biomass

 

Figure 25: Historical and Projected Emissions of CH4 in the Agriculture and Husbandry  Sector, from the final use of energy by energy source.

 

Table 12: Emissions of CH4 in Gg/year

 

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

FIREWOOD

9.10

8.15

7.92

6.55

6.21

TOTAL PRIMARY

9.10

8.15

7.92

6.55

6.21

DIESEL  DIESEL OIL

2.03

2.17

2.40

2.81

3.32

FUEL OIL

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.01

0.01

LPG

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

NAPHTHA

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

KEROSENE

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

ELECTRICITY

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

CHARCOAL

0.05

0.05

0.09

0.16

0.30

TOTAL SECONDARY

2.08

2.22

2.50

2.98

3.64

TOTAL

11.18

10.37

10.42

9.53

9.84

 

 

Figure 26: Historical and Projected Emissions of NOx in the Agriculture and Husbandry  Sector, from the final use of energy by energy source.

 

Table 13 : Emissions of NOx in Gg/year

 

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

FIREWOOD

6.00

5.38

5.23

4.32

4.10

TOTAL PRIMARY

6.00

5.38

5.23

4.32

4.10

DIESEL OIL

1.09

1.16

1.29

1.50

1.78

FUEL OIL

0.90

0.77

0.91

1.28

1.91

LPG

0.03

0.02

0.02

0.03

0.04

 NAPHTHA

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

KEROSENE

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

ELECTRICITY 

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

CHARCOAL

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.08

0.15

TOTAL SECONDARY

2.03

1.98

2.26

2.90

3.88

TOTAL

8.04

7.36

7.49

7.22

7.98

 

 

Figure 27: Historical and Projected Emissions of N2O in the Agriculture and Husbandry  Sector, from the final use of energy by energy source.

 

Table 14: Emissions of N2O in Gg/year

 

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

FIREWOOD

0.306

0.274

0.266

0.220

0.209

TOTAL PRIMARY

0.306

0.274

0.266

0.220

0.209

DIESEL  DIESEL OIL

0.123

0.131

0.145

0.170

0.201

FUEL OIL

0.001

0.001

0.001

0.002

0.003

LPG

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

NAPHTHA 

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

KEROSENE

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

ELECTRICITY 

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

CHARCOAL

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.001

0.002

TOTAL SECONDARY

0.124

0.132

0.147

0.173

0.205

TOTAL

0.430

0.406

0.413

0.393

0.414

 

 

Figure 28: Historical and Projected Emissions in the Agriculture and Husbandry  Sector of NMVOCs from the final use of energy by energy source.

 

Table 15: Emissions of NMVOCs in Gg/year

 

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

FIREWOOD

44.37

39.75

38.61

31.95

30.27

TOTAL PRIMARY

44.37

39.75

38.61

31.95

30.27

DIESEL OIL

1.02

1.09

1.21

1.42

1.68

FUEL OIL

0.02

0.02

0.02

0.03

0.04

LPG

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

NAPHTHA

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

KEROSENE

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

ELECTRICITY

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

CHARCOAL

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.08

0.15

TOTAL SECONDARY

1.07

1.14

1.28

1.53

1.87

TOTAL

45.43

40.89

39.89

33.48

32.14


[1] It should be remembered that in the case of agricultural products the inconveniences of using constant prices , from the economical point of view, are considerably smaller than in other sectors where there is no exact correspondence among the products. Obviously, one ton of soybean (even the transgenic one) of year 2000 is more easily compared to one ton of soybean produced in 1970 (30 years of interval) than comparing a 1990 computer to a 2000 one (10 years of interval).


   [M1]

   [M2]   [M3.

 

Graphic Edition/Edição Gráfica:
MAK
Editoração Eletrônic
a

Revised/Revisado:
Tuesday, 11 November 2008
.

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