Author : João Antonio Moreira Patusco
patusco@mme.gov.br

The ratio between the hydraulic generation and the generation potential of the annual installed capacity permits to obtain the average utilization factor of the power plants, whose historical results are shown in graphic 1 for the period 1970 – 1990.

It is noticed that the fitted straight line follows a direction practically parallel to the X axis which shows an average utilization factor practically with no growth in the period.. It is assumed that the indexes below the average value permit the recovery of the reservoirs’ levels, allowing from times to times an adequate reserve. One can say that between 1980 and 1983 there was an exaggerated reserve which now would sharply lower the MAE prices

Graphic 1 – Utilization Factor and Fitting for the 1970/1990 Period  

BEB, whose data were used for the above analysis, is based on the following procedure: (1) In February the data collection is started by sending about 600 work sheet data that should be returned until March 30; (2) in the first week of April a survey is made and new correspondence is sent; (3) in the second half of April a new survey is carried on and contacts are made by telephone and e-mail; (4) in the first half of May a final evaluation is made and the last contacts are made by e-mail and telephone; (5) in May and beginning of June about 800 forms are processed and some data are made available via Internet; (6) in June and July the Portuguese and English versions are written; (70 in August theses documents are published and (8) in September the electronic version for the Internet are elaborated and the printed edition distributed.

These explanations concerning BEB have the purpose of showing that when there are procedures, monitoring and management, the activities flow without set back. It is even ridiculous a comparison between BEB’s complexity and that of the Electric Sector but it should be mentioned that some links of this administrative practice have been broken when the Sector was restructured. A first analysis made by specialist of the area, and I include myself among them, indicates problems of identity crisis in the sector, power struggle, team demobilization, discouragement, apathy and even the presence of illicit interests.

The problems that restrained a larger expansion of the installed generation capacity were known but there was a lack of vehemence to made them public and politic will or decision  to solve them. Could it be that if some hero, invested with patriotism, would summon the media, would escalate a tower of Transmission Line and on the verge of throwing himself, would claim for actions and then would we be in a better situation?

The planning of the electric energy supply expansion was under the responsibility of Eletrobras but the privatization process started in 1995 made the company gradually lose its condition of holding company of the Electric Sector and from then on it was considered as one of the many companies acting in a competitive market and therefore a competitive company.

Therefore, two years ago the responsibility for expansion planning was transferred to the Energy Secretariat – SEN of the Ministry of Mines and Energy - MME, that established the Coordinating Committee of the Planning of the Expansion of the Electric Systems - CCPE to carry out this task. It happens that the SEN did not have and does not have physical structure and human resources to be engaged in this additional activity. The solution adopted was to continue having the support of the jurisdictional companies, the establishment of committees and contacting of consulting personnel, everything in a very provisional form.

It should be added that in the last two years SEN had 4 Secretaries and in each administration the cadre of coordinators, advisers and consultants and the administrative procedures have been altered.

With such conditions one should ask: Would it be possible that a hypothetical hydroelectric project , granted in 1994 and with operation foreseen for 2000, was duly monitored and that the necessary conditions were created so that what was foreseen would became a reality?

The crisis is here... it is inevitable but the Brazilian people is creative and cooperating and I believe that the problems in the short run will be solved. We will reduce consumption and increase the offer  - beware of the solutions (idiomatic expression) adopted in periods of crisis – and the reservoirs will have conditions to reach reasonable levels of water. But.. what about the future?

The Ministry of Mines and Energy continues without adequate infrastructure. The complexity grows if we consider that electrical planning cannot be viewed in an isolated form anymore.  The use of natural gas will not be restricted to thermoelectric electricity. Natural gas will be used in industry, in commerce and in residences. This gas will substitute LPG., fuel oil, firewood, electricity, etc., a fact that will have an influence on the refining structure, on the external energy trade, on the type of petroleum to be imported, etc. In other words, there should be an integrated energy planning, otherwise tomorrow we will have problems not because there is lack of water but because gas is lacking.

Finally, I believe that we are now in a period of institutional de-structuring or, if you prefer, re-structuring and we do not  have an entity (office, governmental agency, or other) that has a permanent, specialized, well-paid technical team, preferably without political interference, which could conduct energy planning in a permanent and sustainable form. In the transport area we have GEIPOT, in the economic area we have IPEA and in the energy area, whose projects may take up to 10 years from its conception until its operation, we have nothing similar..

In the present situation there are too much improvisation, too much rush, too much disorientation so that they already affect the quality, punctuality and infrastructure of the Brazilian Energy Balance, a document that is the essence of the Brazilian energy data transparency.

I don’t intend to climb a tower of  Transmission Line, it is not necessary, the energy crisis is sufficiently dramatic.

However, it should be kept in mind that crises are useful for nations when they induce course corrections.

Sacrifices of the next months will be in vain if we do not  provide the Electrical Sector with a Planning and Follow Up mechanism  that permits that the Government and the Society will not be startled by another similar crisis.

Brasília, June 07, 2001