Economy & Energy
|The The Brazilian Energy Balance
Production: Coordenação Geral
de Informações Energéticas
In 1997, the final energy consumption grew by 6.1%, showing an elasticity of 2.0 in relation to the GDP, an increase of 0.25 in relation to the elasticity of 1996. This increase in elasticity is due, in part, to an increase in the consumption of electricity in the Commercial and Residential Sectors and to an increase in the consumption of aviation and diesel kerosene in the Transportation Sector
The total reserves (measured, indicated and inferred) of petroleum, NGL and natural gas, reached 16.9 billion barrels equivalent to petroleum-boe, in December of 1997, a volume 19.9% greater than 1996. Considering only the measured reserves of petroleum, 7 billion barrels, it corresponds to about 22 years of the current production.
The average production of petroleum was 843 thousand barrels/day, in 1997, (869 thousand, if including NGL), growing 7.3% in relation to 1996. The consumption of petroleum products increased to 7.7% (1599 thousand boe/day) which includes the consumption of the Petroleum Industry itself). In the same year, imports of crude oil and petroleum products reached 852 thousand boe/day and exports reached 89 thousand boe/day. In this context the dependence on external crude oil and petroleum products remained at 46%, equal to that of 1996.
As in 1996, the consumption of aviation kerosene and automotive gasoline showed significant growth rates of 12.5% and 8.9% respectively. Considering the total automotive consumption of gasoline and alcohol, there is a strong decrease in the growth rates, from 10.7% in 1996 to 3.6% in 1997. Thus, after three years of elevated consumption growth rates and attending to the repressed demands resulting from the recession of 1990/93, gasoline consumption returned to a performance closer to that of the economic growth.
The consumption of automotive alcohol reached 13.3 million m3 in 1997, 3.9% below the consumption in 1996. As the sales volume of new alcohol-fueled cars remained below the amount of scrapped cars, thus causing a reduction and aging of the fleet, the consumption of hydrated alcohol decreased by 8.7 in 1997.
Although the consumption of anyhydrous alcohol matched the consumption growth of gasoline, it was not enough to avoid the formation of alcohol stocks greater than 2 million m3.
During 1997, 1.9 million new automobiles were sold to the domestic market implying the consumption of around 1.7 million m3 of gasoline and alcohol, according to estimates. In the same year were consumed 0.9 million m3 of gasoline and alcohol more than in1996, a quantity that is inferior to the demands of the new fleet. As such, the calculations indicate that there was a 2.5% reduction in the average consumption per vehicle in 1997, reversing the situation verified in 1996 when there was an increase of approximately 5.1%.
The consumption of electricity increased 6.4% in 1997, (elasticity of 2.1 in relation to the GDP), driven by the performance of the Commercial Sector (9.8%) and the Residential Sector (7.3%), which was much superior to the performance of the Industrial Sector (4.6%). Althought growth was not as strong, residential consumption continued to be driven by new connections and by the purchase of durable consumer goods, mainly by the lower income families, whose purchasing power increased as the rate of inflation decreased. In Commerce, the consumption of electricity reflected the expansion and modernization of services and the more intensive use of air conditioners, as well as the opening of large shopping centers.
Despite an increase of 1.4 million new residential accounts in 1997, the average consumption by account showed growth of 2.9% (about 175 KWh/month) which is still noteworhty but is declining in relation to previous years (4.7% in 1996 and 8.8% in 1995).
It is relevant to mention that for the fourth consecutive year, the consumption of electricity by the Industrial Sector (excluding the Energy Sector) showed an elasticity of less than one in relation to the Industrial Added Value.
In 1997, some energy intensive industries showed physical production growth rates below the GDP, such as Ferro-Alloys (-12.9%) and Aluminum (-0.8%) while others showed performances well above the GDP, such as Cement (10.1%) and Chemical (7.5%). The most electricity-intensive industries were the ones that grew less, which explains the low growth in electricity consumption. In this context, the total energy consumption by the Industrial Sector (excluding the Energy Sector) showed a 4.6% growth in relation to 1996, with 1.5 elasticity in relation to the GDP and 0.77 to the Industrial Added Value - AV.
The Brazilian Gross Domestic Product - GDP - grew 3.03% in 1997, 0.12 above 1996s growth of 2.91%. Considering an annual population growth of 1.3%, the Brazilian GDP per capita grew 1.8% in 1997.
Contrary to previous years, when the economic growth was led by the Agricultural and Service Sectors, the 3.03% GDP growth was strongly influenced by a 5.8% growth in the Industrial Sector. The Agricultural Sector, showing a growth of only 1.15% in 1997, sustained a crop growth of 2.8% which is an inverse situation compared to previous years (-0.8% in 1996 and 0% in 1995). Along the same lines, animal production also showed an inverse relation to previous years (-2.4% in 1997 against 7.8% in 1996 and 12% in 1995).
The low growth rate in the Service Sector (1.27%) was influenced, in great part, by the 0.62% performance in Communications and by the 0.37% performance in the area of Financial Institutions and Other Services. The Industrial Sector (inclunding the Energy Sector) grew 5.8% in 1997, a noteworthy result and well above the increase in 1996 (2%). In this sector, the high performance of Civil Construction (8.5%) and Mineral Extraction (7.3%) contrasted with the low performance of the Transformation Industry (4.1%)
(*) BRAZILIAN MINES AND ENERGY MINISTERY