Brazilian Energy Balance 1997 - BEB 97

Energy Secretary - Brazilian Mines and Energy Ministery

Brazilian Energy Balance

Energy Balance 1998 (in Portuguese)

Introduction

Like in previous years, the Brazilian Energy Balance 1997 - BEB 97 - shows the energy flows of different primary and secondary sources, from the production to the final consumption in every sector of the brazilian economy, for the period 1981 to 1996 .

The balance sheet can be more readily understood if certain basic concepts are explained.

Primary energy: sources provided by nature in its direct form, such as petroleum, natural gas, mineral coal, hydraulic energy, firewood, etc.

The bulk of primary energy is consumed (transformed) in the Transformation Centers (petroleum refineries, natural gas plants, coking ovens, hydroelectric power plants, etc.), where it is converted into sources of secondary energy (diesel oil, gasoline, coke, electricity, etc.) with their respective losses in transformation.

The remaining primary energy is consumed directly in various sectors of the economy and this consumption is designated final consumption. Examples: the consumption of firewood for cooking meals, the consumption of steam coal in boilers, etc.

The same occurs with secondary energy, with the greater part going directly into final consumption in the various sectors of the economy while the remainder is converted into other forms of secondary energy. Examples: fuel oil into electricity; sugar cane bagasse into electricity; naphtha into town gas, etc.

The total consumption of each source of primary and secondary energy is thus represented by the sum of the energy transformed plus the energy that flows to final consumption.

It should also be pointed out that the final consumption of primary and secondary sources can be broken down into energy and non-energy applications, with final energy consumption covering a number of sectors of the economy, such as: the energy sector itself, the residential, commercial, public, agricultural, transportation and industrial sectors. The transportation sector consists of highway, railroad, airway and waterway transportation; and the industrial sector of cement, pig-iron and steel, ferro-alloys, mining/pelletization, non-ferrous metals, chemical, food and beverage, textiles, paper and pulp, ceramics and other industries.

This Balance is divided into nine chapters, as follows:

1. SUMMARY - 1981/96

¨ Consolidated data of production, consumption and external dependence on energy, and also the sectorial composition of the consumption of the different groups of energy sources.

2. ENERGY SUPPLY AND CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE - 1981/96

¨ Production, import, export, variation in inventories, losses, adjustments and total consumption for every primary and secondary sources.

3. ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SEcTOR - 1981/96

¨ Final consumption of energy broken down into primary and/or secondary sources, by sector.

4. ENERGY IMPORT AND EXPORT - 1981/96

¨ External dependence on energy, defined as the difference between domestic demand and production of energy.

5. TRANSFORMATION CENTERS BALANCES - 1981/96

¨ Balances of transformation centers, characterizing the energy processed, the energy produced, and the respective losses in transformation.

6. ENERGY RESOURCES  AND RESERVES - 1971/96

¨ Energy resources and reserves of primary sources, with respective methodologies for estimating them.

7. ENERGY AND SOCIO-ECONO-Mics - 1981/96

¨ Parameters with the production and consumption of energy/GNP and population, and foreign exchange expenses with the importation of petroleum.

¨ Average prices of the energy sources, as also specific consumption of energy in selected sectors.

8. ENERGY DATA RELATING TO BRAZILIAN STATES - 1981/96

¨ Partial information about regional energy balances and population.

9. APPENDICES

A. Installed Capacity

¨ Installed capacity of electrical generation and that of refining.

B. International Data

¨ Parameters with the supply and consumption of energy for selected countries.

C. General Structure of the Balance

¨ Methodology of the energy balance.

D. Treatment of Information

¨ Sources of data. Particular aspects of sources of energy and those explanations necessary to understand different concepts from Balances for previous years.

E. Conversion Units

¨ Densities, heat values and conversion factors of primary and secondary energy sources.

F.  Consolidated Energy Balance

¨ Annual matrices where all the energy flows of the different primary and secondary sources are consolidated.

1. SUMMARY - 1981/96

BRASIL's GENERAL DATA

ENERGY HIGHLIGHTS

In 1996 final energy consumption grew by 4.7%, showing an elasticity of 1.6 in relation to the GDP, an increment of 0.63 in relation to the elasticity of 1995, that was of 0.97. This increase in elasticity is due in great part to an increase in the consumption of electricity in the Residential Sector (electricity and GLP) and Transportation (automotive gasoline).

The total reserves (measured, indicated and inferred) of petroleum, NGL and natural gas, reached 14.1 billion barrels equivalent to petroleum-bep, in december of 1996, a volume 28% greater than 1995. Considering only the measured reserves of petroleum, 4.9 billion of barrels, it corresponds to about 17 years of the current production.

The average production of petroleum was 786 thousand barrels/day, in 1996, (809 thousand m3, if including NGL), growing 13.4% in relation to 1995.

The consumption of petroleum products increased to 6.5% (1476 thousand boe/day) including the consumption of the Petroleum Industry. In the same year, imports of crude oil and petroleum products reached 813 thousand boe/d and exports 81 thousand boe/d. As a result, the deficit of crude oil and petroleum products remained constant (46%).

As in 1995, automotive gasoline and aviation kerosene consumption showed the significant rates of growth, 17.1% and 6.8% respectively. The continuation of Low Inflation rate, the availability of low priced cars, stable fuel prices and viable financing, allied to formerly repressed demand are some of the factors of high levels of consumption.

The consumption of automotive alcohol reached 13.8 million m3 in 1996, 3.9% greater than the consumption in 1995. In 1996 the total production of alcohol grew 10.9%, causing a decrease of 33% of alcohol importation, a reverse situation of the previous year.

In 1996, 1.6 million automobiles entered the domestic market and consumed around 1.5 million m3 of gasoline and alcohol, according to estimates. In the same year 2.9 million m3 of gasoline and alcohol were delivered to the market. A difference of 1.4 million m3 was absorbed by the existing trucking fleet in 1995. This amount, when divided by the consumption of gasoline and alcohol in 1995, represents an increase of about 5.1% in the average consumption by vehicle.

The consumption of electricity increased 4.6% in 1996, (elasticity of 1.56 in relation to the GDP), driven by the performance of the Residential Sector (8.6%) and the Commercial Sector (7.7%), which was greatly superior to the performance of the Industrial Sector (1.6%).

Althought growth was not so strong as in 1995, the residential consumption was driven by new connections and purchages of consumer equipments, mainly by the lower income families, whose purchasing power increased as the rate of inflation decreased. In Commerce, the consumption of electricity reflected the expansion and modernization of services and the more intensive use of air conditioners, as well as the opening of large shopping centers.

Despite an increase of 1.2 million new residential accounts in 1996, the average consumption by account showed a significant growth of 4.7%, reaching, in the same year, the level of 171 kWh/month, even more significant, but very inferior compared to the one in 1995 (8.8%).

It is relevant to mentioning that for the third consecutive year, the consumption of electricity by the Industrial Sector (excluding the Energy Sector) showed an elasticity of less than 1 (around 0.7) in relation to the Industrial Added Value.

In 1996, some energy intensive industries showed low rates of physical production below the GDP, such as steel (0.6%), Aluminium (0.6%) and Chemical (1.5%), others showed performances above the GNP, such as cement (22.4%), Ferro-Alloys (11.8%) and Paper and Pulp (3.4%). The most intensive in electricity were the ones that grew less, which explains the low growth of industrial electricity.

In this context, the total energy consumption by the Industrial Sector (excluding the Energy Sector) showed a 2.6% growth in relation to 1995, with 0.9 elasticity in relation to the GNP and 1.4 to the Added Value - AV. These elasticities are greater than the ones presented in 1995, 0.4 and 1.0 respectively, a fact that contributed to a slight increase in the industrial energy intensity - from 0.367 to 0.370 toe/10^3US$(96)/of AV.

ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS

The Brazilian Gross National Product - GNP - grew 2.9% in 1996, 1.3 below 1995’s growth (4.2%). Considering an annual population growth of 1.3%, the Brazilian GDP per capita grew only 1.9% in 1996.

For the second consecutive year the GDP growth was led by the Agricultural and Service Sectors. These sectors grew, respectively 3.1% and 3.3% in 1996. In 1995 the growth was 5.1% and 6.1%, respectively. The Agriculture Sector grew less in 1996 because the crops had a weaker performance, with -0.8% in 1996 and zero in 1995. The animal production grew 7.8% and comparing to the 12.0% of 1995 continued growth was sustained at that rate.

The lowest growth of the Service Sector in relation to 1995 was influenced in great part by the negative performance of 8.9% of the financial institutions.

The Industrial Sector (including the Energy Sector) grew just 2.3% in 1996, a insignificant result but still lightly superior than the 2.0% of 1995. In this sector, the high performances of Mineral Extraction (9.7%) Construction (5.5%) and Public Utility Industrial services (6.5%) contrasted with the low performance of the Transformation Industries (0.8%).